Could Jeremy Corbyn Win A General Election?

Polling does not show public opinion of Jeremy Corbyn and his policies in as bad a light as the critics of the Labour leader may expect.

Sky Data polling shows the Islington North MP is in fact the preferred choice of the general public when compared with his rival candidates and when additional options, such as David Miliband and Tony Blair, are included.

He is also the public's favourite Labour candidate to be the next Prime Minister after David Cameron - second only to Boris Johnson from likely Conservative rivals and ahead of George Osborne and Theresa May.

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And he comes out top of the Labour candidates on charisma, competence and policies.

On all counts most answered that they "don’t know", however, so the picture is far from clear.

And most thought Mr Corbyn would perform as badly as Ed Miliband - while his rivals were considered likely to be neither better nor worse than the former leader.

His left wing policies are also not necessarily as unpopular as many might believe.

Nationalisation of railways and water companies, raising the minimum wage to £10 per hour and increasing the top rate of income tax all have very strong public support.

His views on scrapping Trident, Britain's nuclear weapons arsenal, are far less popular across Britain, although they are popular in Scotland, a key battleground for Labour after its wipe-out in the general election at the hands of the anti-Trident Scottish National Party.

However, Mr Corbyn's supporters would be less pleased to hear that right-wing views are also highly popular with the public in policy areas such as welfare benefits, criminal punishment and immigration.

It is impossible to know how the public will react to whoever becomes the next Labour leader when the full media spotlight is upon them.

We also do not know how the victor will handle being leader, how his or her fellow MPs will react to their decisions, or indeed the context in which the next general election will be fought in five years' time.

What we do know is that whoever wins the contest will have to simultaneously deal with two quite disparate groups in the British public at large and the Labour membership.

And a primary issue for this will be the economy. Back in 2010, following Labour’s general election defeat YouGov asked about Labour's reputation for economic competence.

Seven in 10 Britons said that it had been destroyed by the recession - the highest level of agreement for any criticism levelled at Labour. But more than half of Labour supporters disagreed.

Five years on, Sky Data asked after the May general election what would be likely to persuade more voters to back Labour.

Policies to boost the economy were seen as the most important thing among people who didn't vote Labour but had considered doing so in the past. But among Labour supporters, this was seen as the least important factor.

Regaining a reputation for economic competence will be vitally important for whoever becomes Labour leader. And convincing Labour’s existing supporters that it is necessary will be an important part of that.

Time will tell if Mr Corbyn can achieve that.

:: Sky Data interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,117 Sky customers online between 21 and 24 August, 2015 and a nationally representative sample of 2,314 Sky customers online between 13 and 15 May, 2015. Data was weighted to the profile of the population.

Click here for full Sky Data tables regarding the Labour leadership candidates.

Click here for full Sky Data tables regarding factors that would persuade more people to vote Labour

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