Election poll predicts four new MPs for Leicester and Leicestershire

Leicestershire could have four new MPs after the country goes to the polls on Thursday, July 4, YouGov's final set of General Election predictions suggest.

The market research and data analytics firm estimates the Labour Party is on track to come away with 431 of Parliament’s 650 seats to the Conservatives' 102. The results have been formed from modelled responses from around 47,000 adults across Great Britain.

YouGov has previously described the expected Labour win as “historic” and “beyond landslide [victory] territory”. Leicestershire will play a part in that victory, it seems.

READ MORE: All the Leicester and Leicestershire General Election 2024 candidates we know are running so far

Between the county and the city, we look set to come away with four new MPs. This is down from the six predicted in YouGov's last set of results.

The newest YouGov polling echoes previous predictions that Labour candidate Jeevun Sandher is expected to take Jane Hunt’s Loughborough seat. Ms Hunt is running again in the constituency for the Conservatives.

Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire seat is also still predicted to swing to the left with Labour’s Amanda Hack claiming victory there. While Mr Bridgen finished his term as an independent MP following a brief stint with Reclaim, this would still count as a loss for the Tories as he won the seat for the party in 2019.

If the results prove accurate, Harborough, Oadby and Wigston MP Neil O’Brien now no longer at as much risk of losing his seat. YouGov previously suggested Labour candidate Hajira Piranie could squeak to victory in the constituency, but added the candidates were more or less neck and neck in its penultimate poll.

Now, Mr O'Brien is expected to nudge ahead and keep his seat. YouGov has described the tight race between the two as a “toss up”.

An additional Conservative loss was also expected in Melton and Syston. The newly drawn up seat takes much of what was Edward Argar's Charnwood seat.

This area is another "toss up" seat, with YouGov previously expecting Labour candidate Zafran Khan to inch ahead of Mr Argar. Now, it seems Mr Argar has pulled things back, with a Conservative hold suggested more likely.

Leicester East could also be set for a new representative in Parliament. Labour candidate Rajesh Agrawal is on track to take the seat held by independent Claudia Webbe, the YouGov poll suggests, again echoing previous predictions for the seat. Ms Webbe has confirmed she will be running again for the seat but as an independent candidate.

This would count as a Labour hold, however, as Ms Webbe won the seat for the party in 2019 before being expelled from the party after being convicted of harassing Michelle Merritt, a friend of her boyfriend, Lester Thomas. Ms Webbe received an apology from the Crown Prosecution Service after an independent body found it had failed to correct reports she threatened to throw acid over Ms Merritt, which she did not.

Labour are “likely” to win the seat, YouGov said, taking 37 per cent of the vote. The Conservatives are set to come in second with 23 per cent. Ms Webbe would fall into the “other” category in the YouGov results. The organisation predicts 14 per cent of the vote will go to other candidates.

Leicestershire’s final new MP would come as the result of a brand new constituency being introduced in the county – Mid Leicestershire. The Conservative Party was expected to win this seat, with candidate Peter Bedford becoming its first MP.

However, YouGov polling now suggests it could actually be a Labour victory. Their candidate Robert Martin is expected to take around 42 per cent of the vote to the Conservative's 33 per cent.

The remaining five seats are expected to stay in the hands of their 2019 winners. Both Jonathon Ashworth’s Leicester South and Liz Kendall’s Leicester West seats have been described as “safe” Labour holds in the YouGov results.

The renamed Hinckley and Bosworth seat is set for a Conservative hold, YouGov suggests. Dr Luke Evans is expected to take 37 per cent of the vote. Much of the remaining share will be closely split by the Liberal Democrats and Labour who are predicted to take 26 per cent and 18 per cent respectively.

Finally, South Leicestershire is also looking likely to lean in favour of the Conservative. 2019 winner Alberto Costa would maintain his seat if the poll is correct. He is anticipated to win 36 per cent of the vote, with Labour again coming second with 26 per cent.

A small section of Leicestershire, including the villages of Houghton-on -the-Hill, Thurnby and Bushby, and parts of Scraptoft and Billesdon will see their Parliamentary constituency move over the border to join the new Rutland and Stamford constituency. Alicia Kearns, who won the Rutland and Melton seat, which included these areas prior to the boundary changes, in 2019, will be fighting for the new seat against candidates from Labour, the Greens, the Lib Dems, Reform UK and Rejoin EU.

You can find a list of the candidates who have so far declared they are standing here. A breakdown of the changes to constituencies can be found here.

A previous version of this article said Leicestershire was set for six new MPs. This has been updated following the release of new predictions by YouGov this evening.