Johnson, McVey and Raab each hint at Tory leadership ambitions

Three Brexit-supporting former cabinet ministers have signalled in television interviews that they would be interested in running for the Conservative leadership if Theresa May is forced to resign after Tuesday night’s critical Brexit vote, in a sign of the prime minster’s crumbling authority.

Boris Johnson, Esther McVey and Dominic Raab all refused to rule out leadership bids and called on May to persuade the EU to ditch the backstop and withhold some of the £39bn divorce bill, though Brussels has said no further negotiation is possible.

Soft Tories immediately sounded the alarm over the leadership jostling, with former attorney general Dominic Grieve suggesting the party could be on the brink of a formal split.

Speaking on The Andrew Marr Show, Johnson said he felt a “deep sense of personal responsibility” for the 2016 referendum result and when asked directly about whether he would rule out trying to become prime minister, declined to do so.

“I will give you an absolute, categorical promise that I will continue to advocate what I think is the most sensible plan,” the former foreign secretary said, although he dismissed as nonsense speculation he had begun offering Tory colleagues jobs in a future administration.

An hour earlier, McVey, the former work and pensions secretary, said she believed it would be “very difficult” for May to stay on if she failed to renegotiate the Brexit deal.

McVey did not rule out running for the leadership herself, saying she would do so “if people asked me”. She said she was “looking for a person who can unite the party behind the Brexit deal” and said Brexiters should get behind one candidate, but did not name anyone.

Grieve, who authored an amendment for next week that MPs could use to attempt to block a no-deal Brexit, said a formal split looked possible.

“There is a risk the party will split and cannot continue in its current form,” he said, adding that Johnson would be a “disastrous leader” for the Conservatives and he would personally find it “very difficult in those circumstances to take the Conservative whip”.

The former cabinet minister Justine Greening hinted that she believed parliament was unworkable in its current form. “People are utterly fed up to the back teeth with parliament being stuck on Brexit and nothing else – it can’t go on like this,” she told the Guardian.

Brexit minister Kwasi Kwarteng played down the prospect of a formal split in the party, although he said it was possible some MPs could resign the whip.

“I think that when the party split in the 19^th century it was so devastating that the Conservative party is almost wired in its DNA not to split,” he told BBC Radio 5 Live. “I think one or two people might leave, I don’t know who they will be.”

Speculation about the leadership intensified over the weekend, with suggestions that the cabinet ministers Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt, and the former Brexit secretary David Davis would also run if May were to quit. Javid is hosting a joint Christmas drinks for MPs alongside the Commons leader, Andrea Leadsom.

Speculation has also mounted that the newly returned cabinet minister Amber Rudd could be mulling an alliance with the environment minister, Michael Gove, though it is unclear which of them would put themselves forward for the top job.

Appearing on Sky News, Raab, another former Brexit secretary, said when asked about his leadership ambitions: “I’ve always said I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m just not going to get sucked into that debate.” He said the public would think it indulgent to do so.

Raab said he believed May could still hang on as leader “even in the event of a big loss on the vote” because he thought “she could still turn it round” by immediately trying to renegotiate the deal. “If parliament has voted the deal down I think she can go and say this deal doesn’t work for the United Kingdom.”

Raab said no deal could be a better outcome if May could not force further concessions. “Ultimately we need to be willing to walk away,” he said.

Johnson and McVey made similar points about the need to remove the backstop and withhold some of the £39bn divorce bill until a comprehensive free trade agreement is signed between the UK and the EU.

Theresa May quits

The prime minister resigns after a humiliating defeat. Many MPs believe she will have to go if she loses by more than 100 votes. An interim prime minister would have to be chosen while the Tory party plans a leadership contest.

PM goes cap in hand back to Brussels

May begs Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, left, to go the extra mile and reopen the talks. She asks for concessions over the Irish backstop, and then puts whatever she can secure to a second vote in the Commons.

May promotes the Norway option, floated by Amber Rudd and others

Plenty of Conservative and Labour MPs would be happy to see a soft-Brexit, Norway-style solution that keeps Britain in the single market, as suggested by Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary. Although she has previously rubbished the idea, May could do a U-turn and try to sell it as a compromise to avoid the disaster of no deal.

May caves in to calls for a second referendum

With her deal ditched, and if “no deal” is also ruled out by parliament, May’s least worst option could be to go back to the people. Many Tory MPs are pushing her to do so. If Labour officially backs the idea, a second referendum –as suggested by Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary – could happen.

May or her successor accepts defeat and agrees to a no-deal Brexit

If parliament cannot agree on what kind of exit from the European Union it wants, and if there is no majority for a second referendum, Britain hurtles towards a no-deal departure on 29 March 2019. A hardcore group of Brexiters led by Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg would rather accept trading with Europe on basic World Trade Organisation terms than May’s deal or any form of soft Brexit.

Brexit is dropped without a second referendum

If there is no agreement on anything, and “no deal” has been blocked off as an option by parliament, the other choice available is no Brexit. May or whoever is in charge could form a cross-party government of national unity, revoke Article 50 and call the whole thing off.

McVey argued the party’s support for May as prime minister was conditional on renegotiation. She told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday that if May “goes out and gets the deal we want on those key points then she will remain as our prime minister”, adding: “If she doesn’t it is going to be very difficult for her.”

Greening, who has said she will vote against the deal in order to push for a second referendum, said it was up to all MPs in parliament to find a way out of the spiral. The former education secretary said she was not convinced that a Norway-style deal would be any more acceptable than the prime minister’s deal.

“Communities across the country are telling their MPs they don’t like the ‘one foot in, one foot out’ approach of the prime minister’s deal, but the reality is it’s the same problem with the Norway approach – they just leave everyone unhappy,” she said. “However unpalatable it is for MPs, if it’s gridlock in parliament, then MPs have to allow people to choose and find a consensus for themselves.”

Grieve told Sky News that the European issue was of such “fundamental character” that it was clouding all the other issues where Tory colleagues could essentially agree. “That bothers me very much because one of the products of Brexit has been total paralysis on virtually every other area of policy,” he said.

He said he opposed Johnson’s leadership because of his record, not just his hard-Brexit views. “It’s perhaps got less to do with issues around Brexit than I’m afraid my own assessment of his competence,” he said.

Pressed on McVey’s leadership ambitions, Grieve said: “There are all sorts of people who may wish to throw their hat into the ring. At the moment I’m not very interested in finding a new leader because I think the process of finding a new leader in itself would be disastrous for us.”