Evening Standard comment: Transition deal reveals Britain’s power cut

Power is where power goes. The transition deal Britain has just agreed with the EU reveals that Brussels’ power to determine our future is even greater than it was before the referendum, staggering as that may seem.

As a member of the EU, yes, Britain had to abide by European Court judgments; but at least we appointed one of its judges and helped shape the laws it interpreted.

Yes, Britain could be outvoted on decisions by the European Parliament and European Council; but at least it elected some of its MEPs and had a vote in the council chamber.

Yes, we had to pay money into the EU budget; but crucially our Prime Minister had a veto on that entire budget. It meant that while Britain, like other countries, didn’t always get its way, we often did and we always got a hearing.

We had power.

Now that we’re leaving the council, withdrawing our MEPs and losing our judges, we have next to none. The negotiations over this transition deal have revealed that brutal truth.

It was only last month that the Prime Minister said EU citizens arriving after we leave couldn’t have the same rights as those already here. This month, we agree they can.

A fortnight ago we were told that the UK would “determine our fisheries policy”. A fortnight later we find it’s the EU that will determine who fishes in our waters in the coming period — a decision we used to be part of, and now we are only “consulted” on.

A few days ago we were told no British Government could accept an effective customs border in the Irish Sea; now, days later, the Government has accepted that as a default position and it requires the consent of every other EU member state to change that.

We’ve promised to align with their social model, to agree with their state aid regime, and follow every new law they pass — although we now have no say in any of those things.

It’s not that the Brexiteers like David Davis and Boris Johnson wanted to concede these things; it’s that they had no choice — especially once we foolishly followed the hardline ideologues and said we also wanted to leave the single market and customs union.

Ever since, the essential power dynamic at work has been that we need the EU more than they need us. We had to have a transition agreement to avoid falling off a regulatory cliff a year from now, and only the rest of the EU could grant that.

Now we’re told it will be different when we negotiate the permanent free trade agreement with the EU.

German car manufacturers and French cheese-makers will come to our rescue. But will they?

We’re now facing another regulatory cliff, this time in January 2021 — notably, just before the next general election.

We will face major economic damage if we don’t have a European trade deal before then. Who alone can grant that deal? The EU.

It will surely insist on access to our fishing waters and rights for its citizens. It will require that the laws we pass on everything from health and safety to the environment align with its own. It will demand continued payments.

And if we say no then there will be no trade and services deal — and that will hurt us much more than it hurts them. So we will have to fold.

The negotiation just concluded is a dry run for the one about to start. They have us over a barrel, because we put ourselves there.

Sudan the rhino, RIP

Did Sudan the rhino, who died yesterday at the great age of 45, know that he was the last of his kind?

Born on the plains of the country which gave him his name, and captured for a Czech zoo, he spent his last years back in Africa at the admirable Ol Pejeta Conservancy roaming the Laikipia plateau in the shadow of Mount Kenya.

He was the last known male northern white rhino — now only two females of the subspecies survive.

He became a symbol of the effort to save Africa’s great mammals: a great cause, and one that with determination can be won.

Work to control poaching to save the African elephant is making a difference: China at last controls the ivory trade.

Rhinos remain in peril but the battle to save them is gathering strength.

Sadly it is too late to save the northern white rhino; but although Sudan has gone, his example should inspire us to keep up the fight.