For your eyes only – what the head of MI6 is thinking

Seldom, if ever, has the chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) given such a frank and wide ranging briefing to journalists on the threats facing Britain as he did on Friday at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

Alex Younger, a career intelligence officer who served in the Middle East and Afghanistan before taking on the role of ‘C’ in 2014, strikes a calm and deceptively gentle demeanor for a man fighting a terrifying variety of threats - hot and cold - on multiple fronts.

Adversaries include but are not limited to Isil, a resurgent al-Qaeda, Russia and China. Threats range from homegrown jihadists returning from Syria to a new ‘arms race’ in the development of artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other digital technologies.

The head of the Secret Intelligence Services does not come out of the shadows often, so here, for your eyes only, is his thinking on the security issues of the day.

Brexit

Brexit will not be allowed to cause a breakdown in MI6’s relations with its partners in Europe. That is the principle point Younger has come to Munich to push home.

“Britain’s commitment to the security of the European continent is unconditional,” he said.

“There are people alive in our three countries [UK, France and Germany] today because of terrorist attack plans that we have successfully disrupted.

“Our ability to operationalise our network of partnerships... is what sets us apart from our adversaries and is a key strategic advantage that we are determined to retain.”

Nevertheless there is some nervousness over the consequences of a chaotic no-deal Brexit. It could, in extremis, negate long standing protocols that govern the swift and extensive sharing of intelligence data between Britain and its European counterparts.

Pushed on this, Younger would not go further than to note: “I think I’d restrict myself to observing that that is all provided for in the withdrawal agreement the government is proposing.”

Blurred boundaries

The big picture in intelligence is the pace at which the world is changing, said Younger.

Technology in particular is blurring the lines that once kept us safe; the boundaries between the domestic and international, states and non states, war and peace, and virtual and real worlds are all being unpicked.

“Our adversaries are attempting to exploit that ambiguity in an opportunistic way, taking advantage of blurred lines to probe our institutions and defences in ways that fall short of traditional warfare and what we call hybrid threats. For instance cyber attacks, misinformation and the disguised use of military force.”

Cooperation and partnerships are essential to deal with the challenge, said Younger. That and making sure adversaries pay a high price for hostile acts.

“When faced with hybrid threats our approach with our allies is to seek to attach a cost to the behaviour, so that whatever benefits any adversary thinks they derive from this kind of activity they conclude that it is not worth the risk.

“We did this very successfully following the Salisbury [nerve agent] attack last year, and we are clear that we have the capability to do the same to any adversary at any time.”

Terrorism here to stay

The threat from terrorism, said Younger, “is the ultimate manifestation of the eroded boundaries of the 21st century.”

He said the military defeat of the Isil caliphate in Syria and Iraq represented progress but was far from the end the terrorist threat. “You can’t use military force to kill and idea,” he said.

“Daesh [Isil] is a resilient organisation and it is reorganising, essentially returning to its natural state as an asymmetric transnational terrorist organisation.

“I should say also that al-Qaeda…. has undergone a certain resurgence as a result of the degradation of Daesh and it is a force that should also be taken seriously.”

Isil fighters and brides

Younger is in little doubt that Isil fighters and others returning to Britain from Syria pose a serious threat.

They were “likely to have acquired both the skills and connections” to make them “very dangerous,” on top of having experienced “extreme radicalisation.”

Those facts would be kept “uppermost” in mind and it followed that public safety would be the “first consideration” when dealing with all returnees.

“Anyone who has put themselves in this situation can expect to be questioned and investigated and potentially prosecuted, if they return to our jurisdiction”, he said.

Pushed on the Bethnal Green brides, Younger declined to comment on specific cases but did say that an individual’s particular circumstances would be considered in all cases.

“I fully appreciate that everybody’s circumstances will be different and therefore our response should be different”, he said.

The growing cyber threat

For those with an eye on a career in MI6, it is almost certainly among its banks of computers that new jobs will be found.

According to Younger, cyber is now the organisations fastest growing directorate, it’s aim being to ensure that new digital technologies are “on our side, not that of our opponents”.

“We do not believe in a Manichean world, but we need to be at least as strategic as our adversaries in the development of our capabilities to respond to hybrid attacks,” he said.

A new security investment fund would help drive cyber innovation in the UK’s private sector, he added.

Russia

If cyber is MI6’s hottest area, it is Russia that is its greatest state adversary.

Younger said Russia appeared bent on undermining Western institutions and it needed to be made to pay a “cost” each time it was caught.

It was not clear to him why Russia had set out on the course it had - “perhaps it feels threatened by the quality of Western institutions and Western alliances” -  but there was no doubt it needed to be dealt with.

“We need to be really, really clear with them that whatever they think they are trying to achieve with this concerted campaign of covert and overt action to denigrate the quality of our institutions and alliances, it’s not going to work - it is going to come at too high a cost.”

The Salisbury attack was a prime example. It was an “unbelievably reckless deployment of a military grade chemical weapon in a Cathedral city,” but one that prompted a globally coordinated and “extremely assertive” response, he said.

China rising

Younger seemed careful to characterise China as strategic competitor, rather than an out-and-out adversary. The subject of China and its technologies “was not susceptible to binary observations or caricatures.” It was complex, he said.

Nevertheless China’s stated ambition to become the world’s dominant player in artificial intelligence and critical commuting technologies, including quantum computing, was a “wake up call”.

“We need to be at least as strategic as them when it comes to the development of the skills and capabilities and technologies in those key areas,” he said.

On the Chinese communications firm Huawei, which America, Australia and New Zealand have restricted from being involved in their 5G networks, the MI6 chief took a softer stance than others in Munich and did not raise the prospect of a UK ban.

“There are actually only a few people that provide the kit that is required to run the 5G network, so there’s just some practical points about the number of vendors that exist at the moment.”

He argued that the building of 5G and other critical technologies should be governed by “principles based approach” which put issues of quality ahead of “country of origin”. In addition he said new telecoms standards were needed to govern the rollout of the new technology and it was “vital” that Britain was active in that.

Ultimately it was “not inherently desirable that we have any monopolistic supplier of any of our critical national infrastructure”, he said. Instead it was “maximum diversity” that the UK and others should shoot for.

Younger added that those general principles, rather than outright bans, should cover civilian nuclear power stations as well as 5G and other sensitive assets.

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