Five key seats in Wales to watch at the 2024 general election

A ballot box is tipped onto a table ready to be counted
-Credit: (Image: Pete Stonier / Stoke Sentinel)

The general election is just days away and if the polls are to be believed, the results in Wales will see a huge change in the electoral map. Labour is on course to take back a number of key seats from the Conservatives.

Poll projections vary but the latest all agree on one thing, the Tories will be lucky to get any seats at all. One poll puts Labour on course for 30 of the nation's 32 seats. Other polls suggest the party of the red rosette is on course for 27 with Plaid on four and the Lib Dems on one.

With many seats looking like emphatic wins for Labour, the final result will come down to some close battles in a small number of key seats. All the parties know what is in play and resources are being diverted to support candidates in marginal seats where the result is too close to call.

Whether the Conservatives can face all an all out wipeout is up for debate but their best hopes are; Ynys Mon; Brecon, Radnorshire and Cwm Tawe; or Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr.

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Here are the key seats in Wales with days to go until the election:

Ynys Mon

The island of Anglesey's last three MPs have been representatives of the three main parties in Wales; Plaid Cymru, Labour and most recently, the Conservatives.

This election, it is firmly a three-way marginal, this is a fight between Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. Many are expecting this to be an incredibly tight result.

Virginia Crosbie was elected in 2019 as MP and is defending her seat, which is the only one in Wales where a boundary review has not impacted. She is bolstered by party support and financial support from her party.

She is up against Llinos Medi, the Plaid Cymru council leader who is well-known, and has been long selected, giving her the long run up to election night. A local, Welsh-speaking candidate with political experience and a public profile, all goes in her favour. The island has Plaid Cymru representation in the Senedd in the form of party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth and had a Plaid Cymru MP between 1987 and 2001 in Ieuan Wyn Jones.

The Labour candidate is Ieuan Mon Jones, a former staffer to former Labour MP Albert Owen who lives on the island with his young family.

Each party considers this seat up for grabs and will be one of the most interesting in Wales on election night.

Read more about the constituency and candidates here.


Virginia Crosbie who has been MP since 2019
Virginia Crosbie who has been MP since 2019

This Carmarthenshire seat is a battle between Plaid Cymru's Ann Davies and Labour's Martha O'Neill. The seat had initially looked like it would be complicated for Plaid Cymru as the former MP Jonathan Edwards, who had to sit as an independent after receiving a police caution looked set to restand under his own steam, however he ruled himself out so fears in Plaid that their vote would be split were, generally, resolved.

Labour has thrown a lot of resources at the seat. Former charity worker Martha O'Neill was selected for the seat having caught the party hierachy's eye when she appeared at conference to introduce Carwyn Jones when he was first minister.

If either party wins it will see Simon Hart, the current government's chief whip and a former secretary of state for Wales lose his seat.

Read more about the constituency and candidates here.


David TC Davies, Welsh secretary in the House of Commons on March 13

A hotly contested battle between Labour challenger Catherine Fookes and the current secretary of state for Wales, Conservative David TC Davies, anoraks expect this to be a close run thing. Mr Davies has been described as doggedly battling to keep his job, despite polls showing he is likely to lose. The party has shipped resources to this seat in the hope of keeping one high-profile seat blue in what is expected to be a poor night for the party.

Ms Fookes, a former head of the Women's Equality Network, is a local councillor who was one of those selected to speak at Keir Starmer's campaign launch in Wales, which took place on her patch.

Read more about the constituency and candidates here.

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe

Fay Jones, Conservative candidate for Brecon and Radnorshire
David TC Davies, Welsh secretary in the House of Commons on March 13

Fay Jones was elected as Conservative MP in 2019 and has risen to minister in the Wales Office but is facing a fight this election. Poll projections are hard to read on this. YouGov's MRP polling currently puts the Lib Dem David Chadwick in the lead, although only narrowly ahead of the Tories. Electoral Calculus agrees, putting the Lib Dems on 30.2% and the Tories on 27%.5%. The Lib Dems insist that this is a two-horse race. But which party edges it on Thursday is far from certain.

Read more about the constituency and candidates here.

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr

Fay Jones, Conservative candidate for Brecon and Radnorshire -Credit:Nikki Powell
Fay Jones, Conservative candidate for Brecon and Radnorshire -Credit:Nikki Powell

The seat that everyone will be watching to see if Craig Williams, the former close aide of the Prime Minister and MP since 2019 who was at the centre of an investigation about gambling, will keep his seat. A party loyalist, until a few weeks ago this was a safe seat for him and his party, but recent revelations that he bet on the date of the election, and the fact the party has withdrawn all its resources and effectively dropped him as a candidate, have shifted the dial.

The previous YouGov MRP polling on June 18 put Mr Williams on 28% narrowly ahead of Labour's Steve Withderden on 25% with the Lib Dem candidate, Llanidloes' Glyn Preston, 24, back in third place on 15%. A more recent poll, Electoral Calculus's work of June 26, puts Labour in the lead with 37.2%. However its figure of just 7.1% to the Lib Dems looks unrealistically low. And if the Lib Dems pick up disillusioned Conservatives then everything is up for grabs.

Read more about the constituency and candidates here.