Yahoo News 
Hackers sign up for the struggle against Russian aggression, but are they doing more harm than good?
In the days since Russia’s invasion, Ukrainians and the West have used the internet to rally the world to the Ukrainian cause and to go on offense in cyberspace against Moscow.
But the invasion is also showing the limits, and potential risks, of cyberwarfare, particularly when it's carried out by private individuals and groups like the hacker collective Anonymous.
“The evidence clearly indicates that cyber operations are neither likely to be capable of substituting for the use of force, nor of significantly enhancing military effectiveness,” wrote two academics last month who have studied Russia’s use of cyberweapons against Ukraine over the past decade.
Ukrainians and the West have used the internet to help counter disinformation, to rally the world to their side, but the unforeseen consequences of digital warfare can be costly.
“The rest of the world has been very careful about what sanctions it applies, and in making very clear where it would apply political pressure to Russia,” Matthew Olney, director of Talos Threat Intelligence and Interdiction at Cisco Systems, told Yahoo News.
In other words, developed countries tend to know what they’re doing when it comes to isolating Russia, and understand the economic and geopolitical ramifications of their actions. Nonstate actors are a different story and could potentially do something that widens the war.
The proliferation of groups like Anonymous claiming responsibility for a host of cyberattacks on Russian interests, Olney said, “just add to confusion.” He added that he is “in no way saying Ukraine shouldn't defend itself in all ways it can.”
“My concerns are not about an escalation between Russia and Ukraine,” Olney said. “No cyber incident is going to make this worse than it is. My concerns are about the continued tension between Russia and the rest of the world.”
These are the thoughts that keep experts up at night. It may be true that a group of hackers with no formal allegiance to any one country could help hamper Russia’s war effort in some limited way. At the same time, the Kremlin could use those hackers to justify cyberattacks against the West, which might trigger a larger and much more dangerous conflict. NATO officials have already suggested that a cyberattack against one of its member states could be seen as an act of war against the alliance.
Cyberattacks on Russian interests could be used as a pretext for President Vladimir Putin to authorize offensive actions against the U.S. or European countries, said Lennart Maschmeyer, a senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich.
"I fear that such activism could provide the Russians with the pretext for increased cyber operations of their own, which they could then credibly attribute to their own patriotic hackers,” Maschmeyer, who co-wrote the essay looking at the effectiveness of Russian cyberattacks, told the German newspaper Der Spiegel.
The U.S. is “extraordinarily vulnerable” to cyberattacks, Olney told Yahoo News.
Glenn Gerstell, former general counsel at the United States' National Security Agency, wrote in the New York Times that “American businesses aren’t ready for a war in cyberspace.”
“America should already be cyberattack-proof, but coordinating these efforts across the country has been an uphill battle,” Gerstell wrote, calling for “a centralized regulator to defend both citizens and the private sector against current and future attacks."
“Getting information about hacks and vulnerabilities flowing quickly and effectively between the government and the private sector — as a central agency would — is essential to stopping cyberattacks before they spread too far. And such an agency would help standardize security products and services, which in turn would reduce the overall burden on businesses by lowering costs,” he argued.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also teaching the world an old lesson: There are few substitutes for hard power, such as tanks and fighter jets. Although Western observers say Russia’s invasion is going more slowly than expected, due to logistical problems and fierce Ukrainian resistance, Moscow’s massive army steadily continues to make gains in the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has shown leadership that some have compared to that of Britain's Prime Minister Winston Churchill, who successfully rallied his country against Nazi Germany after most of Europe had fallen to fascist forces. Zelensky has ably utilized modern technology to amplify his voice, and that has galvanized the world into placing sanctions on Russia and providing weapons to Ukraine.
On the other hand, the cold reality is that memes, hackers and inspirational moments are no match for shells, bullets and missiles, and the cruelty of those willing to use them without remorse.
“There is a risk of making too much of the way the internet and social networks have bolstered the Ukrainian resistance to date — or in underestimating Russia’s ability to retaliate,” wrote Casey Newton at Platformer. “If Russia ultimately takes over Ukraine, this war will have also revealed the limits of what internet organizing can do to stop a global superpower.
“For a few days," he wrote, "the internet has been a valuable force multiplier for Ukraine and the allies of democracy. But the worst of this war is very likely yet to come. And when it arrives, it may have consequences no internet platform is equipped to address alone.”
