High A-level grades ‘won’t guarantee a university place’ this year

Getting an A in your exams will no longer guarantee a university place this year as the competition among students increases, a professor of social mobility has warned.

Lee Elliot Major, a professor at Exeter University, told The Telegraph that an unprecedented number of students with high grades could miss out on their first choice as they faced “the most highly competitive race” for university places in living memory.

The “days of universities fighting over students are over” as A-Level students head towards a “perfect storm” due to a rising number of applicants, a “Covid bulge” at elite universities due to a large number of admissions during the pandemic, and a limited supply of quality apprenticeships, he said.

There would also be an “effective cap” on home student places as universities were incentivised to prioritise overseas student fee income which could rise to help cover rising costs, he said.

Rising teaching costs

The prestigious Russell Group of universities has warned that universities make an average loss of  £1,750 for teaching home students because of frozen tuition fees and rising teaching costs

"I think certainly those students with grades in the As and Bs aren't necessarily going to be guaranteed getting their first choice,” Prof Elliot Major said.

The professor will raise concerns about the impact of the increased competition on poorer students at the Forum for Access and Continuing Education conference at the University of Southampton on Thursday.

He said: “My biggest fear is that poorer students, already disproportionately scarred by the pandemic, may lose out in this new highly competitive era not just this year but over the next decade.”

Record applications

More than 10,000 applicants with predicted grades of BBB are not holding a firm offer at any university, according to Andrew Hargreaves, a former director at Ucas and founder of Data He, a consulting firm that advises universities on using data.

He said it was likely that students without a firm offer had applied for competitive universities or courses such as medicine. “There are lots of really great universities with places but we have a societal bent towards the high-tariff universities,” he said.

Clare Marchant, chief executive of Ucas, said: “This year we are seeing record applications as well as the highest number of students having accepted an offer.

“We predict record numbers of students will get their firm choice this year.”

However, she said that Ucas expects a rise in the number of applicants, in part due to the rising number of 18-year-olds in the UK population, which will result in “a more competitive environment for years to come, especially at the most selective institutions and courses”.

A Russell Group spokesman said: “Growing numbers of 18-year-olds and government-imposed caps on medical and dentistry courses mean it will be another competitive year but the sector will work hard to ensure those who want to study at university can do so. The offer rate this year is still high and most applicants will still be able to secure a place on one of their preferred courses.”