Improve quality of rough-sleeping figures, says UK statistics chief

The government must improve the quality of rough-sleeping figures in England, the head of the UK statistics regulator has said following accusations that some councils have deliberately underreported the scale of the crisis in their area.

Official government statistics reported a 2% fall in rough sleeping in England in 2018 after seven consecutive years of rises when the figures were released in January. But Sir David Norgrove, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), has become the latest official to raise concerns about whether the numbers reflect the reality on the streets.

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The regulator has urged the government to improve the quality of the figures and explain the effect of a short-term funding boost, which led to some recipient local authorities changing their counting methodology for 2018.

The rough-sleeping statistics for England, based on a combination of estimates and spot counts on a single night in autumn, are intended to include everyone about to bed down or already bedded down on the street, in doorways, parks, tents and sheds but not hostels or shelters.

Estimates, akin to a local census, are typically agreed by agencies who work closely with rough sleepers in the area all year round, whereas street counts are one-night snapshots.

The UKSA chief noted a “significant” increase in the number of local authorities switching from an estimate to a count, which critics say records a fraction of the true rough-sleeping population, particularly in the 83 local authorities that received extra funding through the rough sleeping initiative (RSI) from central government.

“We would expect the department to plan for better statistics on rough sleeping in a period shorter than nine years, to publish those plans, and to give greater clarity about the impact that the apparent change in rough-sleeping methods used by some local authorities may have had on the comparability of the statistical series,” said Norgrove in response to concerns raised by the shadow housing secretary, John Healey.

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The minister for homelessness, Heather Wheeler, who promised to resign should she fail to meet the Conservative manifesto commitment to halve rough sleeping by 2022, and eradicating it by 2027, has insisted that switching counting methodology was not a requirement of RSI funding.

Falls of up to 85% in rough sleeping were recorded in Brighton, Southend, Redbridge, Eastbourne, Medway, Worthing, Thanet, Exeter, Basildon, Ipswich and Warwick after councils switched from reporting an estimate to a count. All received RSI funding, and the government has made much of the official fall in rough sleeping recipient areas of nearly one-fifth.

A row has broken out over the change in methodology on Brighton and Hove council, where rough sleeping officially fell from from 178 to 64 from 2017 to 2018 despite claims that the true number should have been 140. The council leader, Daniel Yates, has insisted that central government required the council to change the count methodology.

Wheeler said: “All returns of the official rough-sleeping statistics submitted by local authorities were independently verified or validated by Homeless Link to ensure they were robust.

“Annual counts are not a requirement of funding through the rough sleeping initiative. Councils decide which method they use when compiling their annual rough-sleeping snapshot.

“Areas funded by the initiative also conduct regular counts to provide a better understanding of the numbers sleeping rough, and the impact of this support.”

In 2015, rough-sleeping statistics were also criticised as low-quality, untrustworthy and vulnerable to political manipulation by the UK Statistics Authority.

Healey said: “Ministers can’t hope to tackle our country’s rough-sleeping crisis if they refuse to even measure the problem properly.

“The next Labour government will overhaul the way we count people sleeping on our streets and end rough sleeping within five years.”