How ‘mentally unfit’ Biden can survive a 90-minute TV battle with Trump

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At 1am GMT on Friday morning, two men do battle to decide who gets to be the leader of the free world as CNN hosts the first TV debate of the 2024 American Presidential election.

But it probably won’t be the vigorous sparring match that this high-stakes contest deserves, featuring as it does the oldest candidates in history: 81-year-old Joe Biden and 78-year-old Donald Trump.

Biden has been preparing with his team with mock debates at Camp David – the more traditional approach – while Trump, rather like a stand-up comic, has been trying out material during rallies on the campaign trail.

It may not seem fair, since they’re so close in age, but there are particular fears around Biden’s ability to handle this taxing job for another term.

It certainly doesn’t help that special counsel Robert Hur reportedly called Biden “mentally unfit” when he declined to prosecute him for his alleged mishandling of classified documents.

So, we asked some British political experts how they would advise Biden to appear vigorous, engaged and up to the job in this key electoral test.

Guto Harri, former Downing Street director of communications during Boris Johnson’s tenure, was in the same room as Biden during a G7 meeting.

Harri understands the concerns around Biden’s physical frailty,  and has seen first-hand how easily he can lose his train of thought. The biggest priority, says Harri, is demonstrating that Biden “is sufficiently compos mentis, whether he can focus for long enough, follow the arguments, finish a sentence, or go off-script without saying something weird that becomes the news story of the day.

“If I’m watching the debate, I want to be able to think ‘Yes, this guy is a bit doddery, but he’s still there, he’s still engaged’,” he explains.

Giles Kenningham, former head of political press at Number 10 under David Cameron and founder of Trafalgar Strategy, points out that this 90-minute debate format should suit Biden more than his rival.

It features two moderators (Jake Tapper and Dana Bush), no studio audience, and new measures such as muting microphones to ensure the candidates don’t talk over one another.

“Trump can’t use external factors like bringing the audience in, and can’t be as hectoring. Biden needs to show a clear contrast: that he’s calm and on top of the detail. He should have a competitive advantage, since he’s been getting briefings for the past four years, but he also needs to knit those facts into a story. Use, but don’t overuse, case studies –  and include key facts but not a whole shopping list. Make a virtue of his experience, but remember that emotion trumps reason.”

His team will be well aware of their candidate’s strengths and weaknesses by this point, explains Salma Shah, former special advisor to Home Secretary Sajid Javid and director of Kraken Strategy Ltd. “What you need to do is mitigate for the weaknesses – which in Biden’s case might be issues around memory or delivery.

“You can reduce the margin for error by making things simple and memorable during your coaching to help him land the big blows.”

Biden’s opponent isn’t short of known weaknesses, notes Paul Harrison, a former press secretary to Prime Minister Theresa May who is now a senior counsel advisor at the PR firm Lexington.

“Not least are Trump’s current judicial problems. So one way of taking command is preparing pre-scripted lines to deliver at key moments. I would be astonished if Biden’s team weren’t doing that.”

What about that worst case scenario: if Biden has a memory lapse or stumble? Shah suggests his team could prepare particular lines or topics that he can pivot to. “That should get him out of trouble.”

Kenningham thinks Biden could even lean into the age discussion and make light of it. “The way that Ronald Reagan brilliantly quipped ‘I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.’ He got a huge laugh, and Walter Mondale knew he’d lost.”

There are also little tricks you can employ, reveals Kenningham, “like taking a sip of water if you’re asked a difficult question, which gives you time to reflect, or asking a question back. What seems like a long pause to you isn’t long on TV. You can also say you don’t know something. People like Biden’s honesty.”

There’s a fine line between being prepared and overprepared, says Harri. “If this doesn’t sound contradictory, they’ve almost got to organise spontaneity. We know Biden can be wheeled out to the podium and deliver a script.

“He did that well with the State of the Union address. But there will be an opening when Trump goes rogue, and Biden needs to seize that moment. Then he needs to react: to tut at Trump, come back at him with biting wit, and flag up Trump’s fundamental flaw.

“We need to see a spontaneous mind at work, so that Biden is more than just a figurehead. He could win this debate visually by pulling the right kind of face when Trump says something borderline mad.”

That’s a key point. It’s vital Biden remembers that this is a TV performance too, and that he’s on camera throughout. “You’re sending signals all the time: more than 50 per cent of what you’re communicating is non-verbal,” says Harri. “So when the moderators or Trump speak, it’s critical Biden doesn’t drift off and stare into space.”

Kenningham recalls how George Bush Sr was spotted looking at his watch during a presidential debate in 1992. “That became a defining moment and was immensely damaging. There’s also the handshake at the beginning: who goes in first can confer power. If Biden comes out and takes the initiative, and seems really energised, that will set the tone.”

Kenningham observes that in this day and age, just as many people will likely view the debate via short clips on social media. “You have to speak to both formats. Biden needs to know his camera angles so he can deliver the main soundbites right down the barrel, especially his closing statement. He also needs to come across as authentic and not too stiff. Some advisors say don’t use your hands, but I think it would be fine for Biden to do that, as it expresses passion.”

It might also reassure viewers who have read about Biden’s struggles with arthritis if he can appear physically demonstrative and loose.

Environmental factors can make all the difference. Harri notes that hot lights are uncomfortable for anyone, but could be particularly stressful, sweat-inducing or even soporific for an older man.

“I’d want the room as cool as possible, so I’d ask to turn the air con right up.” Likewise, older people like Biden who struggle to hear are judged differently than younger ones, so getting a member of the team to check the acoustics of the studio beforehand is key.

Harri also advises turning down that friendly offer of a cup of coffee when you arrive, as it could be fatally dehydrating. “If you’re speaking for an hour you don’t want to dry out your mouth and your throat.” Just think of poor Theresa May coughing through her 2018 Conservative Party conference speech.

As for how to keep his stamina up over those 90 minutes, Harri suggests telling Biden to do a time check every five minutes: to have a sip of water, check his breathing, lower his voice, and make sure he’s looking focused and listening intently.

While there isn’t much you can do to limit the actual length of the debate, at least there is the inevitability of ad breaks on American TV, notes Harrison. In this case, there are two, and although he can’t consult his team during breaks, Biden can regroup, drink water, dash to the loo, and go back to the fundamentals of his coaching.

Having a lectern helps too: it’s rather like a shield, explains Kenningham. “You can lean on it if you’re tired and it still looks statesmanlike.”

But it’s vital that no one talks too much to Biden about such safety nets beforehand or they might damage his confidence, says Harri. “The most important thing going into a debate is having an unbelievable level of self-confidence – you have to feel at your best.”

If Biden really believes he can do it, and emphatically demonstrates that tonight, then just maybe the American voters will believe it too.