What Met Office and BBC Weather say about chances of a heatwave next week

Weather map showing the UK getting warmer
-Credit: (Image: BBC Weather)

There is going to be a gradual trend towards more settled and warmer weather in Wales next week with highs of 25°C and a chance we could even see the first heatwave of the summer. The Met Office long-range forecast for July and August had predicted there would be an "increased likelihood of heatwaves". Read more about that here.

That has been hard to believe with all the wet weather we have seen in June but it does look like summer has finally arrived for the last week of the month. While the UK won't see temperatures nearly as warm as those being experienced in the US and Canada it is expected to be much warmer than the chilly start to June.

The Met Office has said that into next week it is gradually going to get more setting and warmer with highs in the mid to late 20s.

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The Met Office says there is a "small chance" that the settled weather "could persist for several days" leading to a spell of hot weather with winds from the south or southeast. Does that mean it will be heatwave?

Met Office forecaster Grahame Madge agreed there was lot of speculation about whether parts of England and Wales will experience heatwave conditions. "There is a specific threshold for a heatwave and it is unlikely that all of Wales will reach that threshold. However, regardless of the precise definition, people across Wales will enjoy a largely fabulous weekend and extended period of fine and settled weather well into next week.”

BBC forecaster Simon King has also been asked the question several times. He posted on X: "Is a heatwave on the way? Maybe. Remember there's a criteria that needs to be met depending on where you live, but with temperatures up to the mid to high 20s early next week...it'll be close to the heatwave threshold for some."

The Met Office Wales forecast for the start of next week says: "Early cloud will break up to give a mix of sunny spells and a few showers on Saturday. Mostly dry with bright spells on Sunday and Monday. Feeling warmer."

This is the weather map for Tuesday:

A weather map

According to the Met Office a heatwave is an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity. A UK heatwave threshold is met when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. The threshold varies by UK county.

BBC Wales weather forecaster Derek Brockway said: "Some parts of the UK could reach heatwave thresholds next week. In Wales, the criteria is at least three days in a row with daily maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding 25C. 26C in SE Wales. In Chepstow 26C is predicted next Tuesday. 25C in Wrexham."

The Met Office says: "Heatwaves are most common in summer when high pressure develops across an area. High-pressure systems are slow-moving and can persist over an area for a prolonged period of time such as days or weeks. They can occur in the UK due to the location of the jet stream, which is usually to the north of the UK in the summer. This can allow high pressure to develop over the UK resulting in persistent dry and settled weather."