Predicted general election results for every Merseyside seat

The general election is just a few weeks away and this week we saw the first seat-by-seat projection of how the results could go since the vote was called.

It has been another bruising week on the campaign trail for Rishi Sunak, who is struggling to change the opinions of voters across the country that he and his party should retain power after the July 4 vote.

For Labour leader Keir Starmer, despite a chaotic period of internal wrangling over candidates, the polls continue to look incredibly favourable - with most people now believing his party will win a majority and he will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

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Those beliefs were only strengthened this week when YouGov produced its first major Multi-level Regression and Post-ratification (MRP) poll, which takes into account the different views of certain groups of voters - and then projects the result of every seat in the country.

YouGov's MRP models correctly called both the hung parliament in the 2017 UK general election, the Conservative victory in 2019, as well as last year’s Spanish general election.

The new poll predicts the Labour Party will win a huge majority at the general election in July 2024 with an estimated 422 of the total of 650 seats.

The Conservatives are way off in second place with just 140 seats - a predicted loss of 225 seats. The Lib Dems are predicted to finish on 48 seats, with the Scottish National Party on 17, the Greens on two and Plaid Cymru on two.

The poll has Reform UK on zero seats but the field work will have been carried out before today's announcement that Nigel Farage will return as leader and stand for the party in the Clacton seat.

If accurate, these results would give Keir Starmer's Labour Party a landslide majority of 194, larger than even Tony Blair's biggest wins.

The MRP poll gives a projected result for every single seat in the country, so we have taken a look at how each Liverpool City Region seat could be predicted to go on July 4.

Liverpool Walton

Liverpool Walton is predicted to be easily retained by Labour, who are predicted to win a huge 78.6% of the vote. The Greens are predicted to come second with 7.3%, ahead of Reform, Conservatives and Lib Dems.

Liverpool Garston

In the redesigned Liverpool Garston seat, current MP Maria Eagle is expected to easily remain in post, with a projected 73.9% of the vote. YouGov predicts its a close run for second place between Greens and Lib Dems, followed by Reform and a last place for the Tories.

Liverpool Wavertree

It is a similar prediction in Wavertree, where Labour are expected to win 72.7% of the vote and retain the seat. The Greens are currently in a healthy second place, with 15%. The Lib Dems are third, followed by Reform and the Tories are last on just 1.4%.

Liverpool West Derby

YouGov project that Labour will easily defend their West Derby seat with, winning 78.4% of the vote. The Greens are narrowly in second with 6.3%, followed by Reform, Tories and Lib Dems.

Liverpool Riverside

The YouGov poll predicts that Labour will comfortably retain the Liverpool Riverside seat with 74.3% of the vote. The Greens are predicted to finish second here with 11.6% followed by the Tories, Reform and Lib Dems.

Knowsley

Knowsley will have a new MP for the first time in nearly 40 years and looking at the YouGov poll, this will be a Labour MP. The party are predicted to scoop up a huge 75% of the vote. The Greens are currently in second with 8.5%, just ahead of Reform UK, who are on 7.2%. The Tories and Lib Dems are battling it out for fourth place.

Bootle

Labour are projected to win 73% of the Bootle vote and keep the seat red. The Greens are just ahead of Reform in the battle for second place according to the MRP poll. The Tories and Lib Dems are bringing up the rear.

Sefton Central

Labour look strong in Sefton Central, but not as strong as in some other Merseyside seats. The red rose party is projected to scoop up 63.9% of the vote, while there is a stronger showing for the Tories who are predicted to finish on 19%. Reform are in third, followed by the Greens and Lib Dems.

Southport

When it comes to Merseyside, many eyes will be on Southport. The seat has been held by the Tories since 2017 and has never been held by Labour. Keir Starmer's party will be delighted to see YouGov project that they will win the seat with 51.6%.

The Conservatives are currently back on 29.5%, with Reform set to take a chunk of their vote with 8.2%. The Lib Dems, who have held this seat many times before, are currently back in fourth place, followed by the Greens.

St Helens North

St Helens North looks like it will be a solid hold for Labour, who are projected to take 60.4% of the vote.. YouGov has Reform in second place here, with 13.6%, just ahead of the Tories on 11%. The Greens are in fourth and the Lib Dems fifth.

St Helens South and Whiston

It is a similar position for the other St Helens seat, which also includes Whiston. Labour are forecast to win 65.5% of the vote and again Reform UK are in second place, this time with 12.3% of the vote projected. The poll has the Greens currently ahead of the Tories in third, with the Lib Dems at the bottom of the pile for the major parties.

Wallasey

Over on the Wirral and it looks like it will be a clean sweep for Wirral. In Wallasey the party is forecast to win 65.1% of the vote, with the Tories in second on 11.5%, just ahead of the Greens and Reform. The Lib Dems are in fifth according to this poll.

Birkenhead

Birkenhead is set to elect a new MP, with Mick Whitely departing the scene. Things are looking good for his replacement as Labour's candidate, Alison McGovern, who is forecast to scoop up 63.2% of the vote. The Greens, who have seen good results in Birkenhead in local elections of late, are back in second on a predicted 13.3%, ahead of Reform, the Lib Dems and the Tories in last.

Wirral West

As recently as 2015, Wirral West was held by the Tories, but it is now considered a safe Labour seat and looks set to stay that way. YouGov predicts Labour will win comfortably here with 54.4% of the vote, with the Tories in second place with 28.1%. Reform are predicted to come third, narrowly ahead of the Greens, with the Lib Dems back in fifth.

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