Scotland see Euro 2024 safety net ripped away – the galling last 16 qualification reality laid bare

Steve Clarke said before Scotland’s Group A opener against Germany in Munich that he was targeting four points to ensure the nation made history and qualified for the knockout stage of a major competition for the first time ever.

And in that respect, even a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of the hosts doesn’t change that. Clarke said immediately after the game: “Four points is the target. I’ve said that from the start. We didn’t get any tonight so four points, next two games."

However, there IS one major change from the margin of the defeat in the tournament opener and that is that it almost certainly eliminates any chance Scotland have of squeezing through to the last-16 with just three points which make Wednesday’s clash against Switzerland in Cologne a must-not-lose to avoid Tommy Docherty's old quip of being home before the postcards being trotted out. Now, some might argue that any team who wins just one game doesn’t deserve to progress from the group but it didn’t bother any of the nations who have managed that previously. In fact, Portugal didn’t win ANY in 2016 but still amassed three points thanks to three draws and went on to win the competition.

But in short, if Scotland finish with just one win against either the Swiss - the last team Scotland beat at a major tournament at Euro ’96 - in Cologne or Hungary in Stuttgart in their final fixture the goal difference would severely hamper their chances of being one of the four best third place sides.

Sitting at minus four already then even a single goal defeat to either Switzerland or Hungary would leave them needing to win the other game 5-0 just to be on par. It would be a big ask, especially for a shot-shy side who mustered just a single shot against Germany. So it means Clarke pre-match target remains the same and in all likelihood his side will need four points to have any chance of qualification.

UEFA expanded the European Championships from a 16-team finals tournament to 24 teams and as part of the new format the four best ranked third placed teams qualified. Here, Record Sport looks back at France 2016 and the last Euros to see what was required to progress - and the two who missed out.

Euro 2016

Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, eventual winners Portugal and Northern Ireland took the four best third-place berths and round of 16 spots.

Slovakia and Martin O'Neill's Ireland both had four points with the other two picking up three points, both with a goal difference of zero. Turkey and Albania both had three points also but, crucially, had a goal difference of -2 which cost them.

Euro 2020

Defending champions Portugal, Czech Republic and Switzerland all had four points on this occasion with Ukraine claiming the last of the third-place nations to progress and they did have a negative goal difference of -1 with the two who missed out Finland (-2) and Slovakia (-5). This examples would offer Scotland most hope but is still extremely unlikely as they would still need to beat either Switzerland or Hungary 4-0.