Is Theresa May any closer to a Brexit deal after Brussels summit?

What happened in Brussels?

It may be a measure of how rocky the past few weeks have been for the Brexit talks, but Theresa May and her team were quietly relieved about what didn’t happen.

There were no fireworks, no walkouts, no snubs or Instagram slights. May was courteously heard out as she explained the fearsome political constraints she faces back home. And while EU27 leaders decided, as expected, that not enough progress has yet been made to justify a special summit in November, they did not rule out calling one nearer the time. The prime minister did not turn up with an immediate solution to the Irish backstop conundrum; but no one really expected her to, after talks broke down last weekend with Dominic Raab’s theatrical day trip.

So nothing has changed?

Not quite: May’s willingness to entertain the idea of an extension to the transition period – to allow more time to negotiate the future trading relationship she still insists is the best way of avoiding border checks in Ireland – was an indication that new ideas have been thrown up in the course of intensive negotiations between the two sides in recent weeks.

Will the proposal solve anything?

The mooted extension to the transition period is a new idea being put forward by the EU to help Theresa May square the circle created by the written agreement last December and the draft withdrawal agreement in March.

That committed the UK and the EU to ensuring there was no divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

But it also, after an intervention by the Democratic Unionist party, committed the UK (not the EU) not to have any trading differences between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

The problem is that these are two irreconcilable agreements. They also impinge on the legally binding Good Friday agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland and in some senses pooled sovereignty of Northern Ireland giving people a birthright to be Irish or British or both.

If the UK leaves the EU along with the customs union and the single market then the border in Ireland becomes the only land border between the UK and the EU forcing customs, tax and regulatory controls.

The backstop is one of three options agreed by the EU and the UK in December and would only come into play if option A (overall agreement) or option B (a tailor-made solution) cannot be agreed by the end of transition. The Irish have likened it to an insurance policy.

The new EU idea is to extend the transition period to allow time to get to option A or B.

But an extension is problematic for Brexiters and leave voters, who want the UK to get out of the EU as soon as possible.

The Irish and the EU will also still need the backstop in the withdrawal agreement, which must be signed before the business of the trade deal can get under way. Otherwise it is a no-deal Brexit.

Extending the transition into 2021 would mean another year of paying into the EU budget. Britain would have to negotiate this but it has been estimated at anywhere between £10bn and £17bn.

Staying in the EU for another year would also mean continued freedom of movement and being under the European court of justice, which Brexiters would oppose.

In particular, UK officials were encouraged by the fact that having first rejected it out of hand, the commission has been willing to engage seriously with the UK’s proposal for the Irish backstop.

That would effectively see the whole UK, rather than Northern Ireland alone, remain in the customs union – something the EU is sceptical could be negotiated in time for the end of the transition in December 2020, but is prepared to work on.

Does that mean we are closing in on a deal?

Perhaps. The two sticking points May identified when she addressed MPs last Monday clearly still remain – but we have a better sense of what both sides are doing to try to resolve them.

First, the commission has no intention of abandoning the Northern Ireland-only backstop that so enrages the Democratic Unionists, and to which May reiterated her staunch opposition at her Brussels press conference on Thursday.

The EU27 still insist it must be included in the legal text of the withdrawal agreement, but they are willing to help out with her political difficulties by offering solemn undertakings to crack on with negotiating the UK’s version.

Similarly, Michel Barnier’s team have been working hard on how to “de-dramatise” any border checks that would be necessary in the Irish Sea under their version of the backstop – siting them away from ports, for example – to help assuage critics’ practical concerns.

Secondly, on whether the backstop risks becoming “indefinite”, May reassured Leo Varadkar when they met that her government did not resile from the promise it signed up to last December, that backstop arrangements would remain in place “unless and until” a viable alternative is negotiated that avoids new checks.

That rules out writing an end date into the deal, as some of her cabinet have been pressing for; but could allow a break clause – some kind of mechanism for Britain to say it thinks it has met the conditions, and ask to exit the backstop.

So what happens next?

That is in the hands of May’s Tory colleagues. EU leaders were crystal clear this week that the main roadblock to finalising a deal lies in Westminster, not Brussels.

The two sides hoped the building blocks for a deal were in place last week, before it became clear the prime minister’s cabinet would not wear it – let alone her backbenchers, or the DUP.

The pizza plotters who met in Andrea Leadsom’s office on Monday night discussed the idea of an extension to the transition, and were not overly concerned, if it helped unlock a deal.

But they will want to scrutinise the wording of any break clause for the backstop very closely, and would need to decide whether they believe reassurances on the Northern Ireland-only backstop.

Judging by Michael Gove’s demand last week for formal legal advice on the implications of any new draft text, levels of trust are not exactly high. And outside the cabinet, the backstop remains a potential dealbreaker for a number of MPs. A much larger number are noisily sceptical about May’s plans for Britain’s future trading relationship with the EU.

Away from the knotty details, a growing number of previously loyal MPs – Nick Boles being the latest recruit – are expressing their frustration at what they regard as a sense of drift.

Throughout the past two years, May has repeatedly kicked the can down the road, rather than face down hardline Brexiters, or the DUP. But if her party allows her to remain in place for these last crucial weeks of the Brexit endgame, she will not be able to postpone the final, potentially explosive confrontation with her Tory critics any longer.