Tommy Conway's Scotland omission is a complex blessing and a confusing curse for Bristol City

The hype had been simmering away. When asked by the BBC to name their final 26-man squads for Euro 2024, two of the pundits polled - former Scotland international and assistant manager Peter Grant and BBC correspondent Tom English - named Tommy Conway in their selections.

Various podcasts have been debating the virtues of including the 21-year-old for some time, based on Steve Clarke’s previous for choosing uncapped talent, not just for the short-term goals of success at a tournament but also in looking at the long-term picture.

Prior to Euro 2020, the Scotland manager named the then-uncapped trio of Billy Gilmour, Nathan Patterson and David Turnbull. Four years later, his squad contains two players who have yet to feature at international level, one is a City player in Ross McCrorie - coincidentally enough due to an injury suffered by Patterson - the other is a forward, but Liverpool’s teenage talent Ben Doak has been given the nod ahead of Conway.

The Taunton-born forward is clearly highly rated within the international set-up having featured consistently for the Under-21s since his debut in September 2022 and trained with the senior squad last summer to present further evidence. But Clarke has deemed his time is still to come.

Given Conway has been pretty direct in discussing the prospect of featuring in Germany, backing himself to make the cut (and why wouldn't he?) while also revealing - like McCrorie - it served as a huge motivating factor to help him get through his rehab post-hamstring injury in September, this will come as a huge disappointment to him (and why wouldn't it?).

Although born and bred of Somerset, the Tartan Army is very much in his blood through his late grandfather Danny, who hailed from Stirling, and his dad Joe, who he regularly looks toward in the Lansdown Stand whenever celebrating at Ashton Gate, and who’s been a dedicated supporter of the Scottish national team.

But beyond the emotional side and the obvious family pride that would have followed his name being included Teletext-style on the announcement video, coupled with it being yet another success story for the Robins academy, is how this sits in career terms. Because that’s really where we’re at right now, when it comes to contracts and where he’ll be playing his football next season.

Conway is no longer the slightly green and naive under-21 prospect, making a name for himself as the local boy done good, he’s a serious Championship footballer now, with back-to-back seasons of goals in double figures.

There has been a visible development in him over these last 12 months beyond what’s been seen on the pitch, which is perfectly natural and is something which also seemed apparent with Antoine Semenyo; although a different, slightly more reserved and quieter character, the change between Semenyo the teenager, making sporadic appearances and starts, and Semenyo the fully-fledged Ghana international who is a near-automatic pick as he flattened various Championship defenders was pretty stark.

He spoke with a confidence, self-belief and assuredness that maybe hadn’t been present before, at least not on the outside. At that moment, he seemed to know and feel he was a proper footballer.

The same has also been true of Conway. He’s always been a bit more of an extrovert, when comparing to Semenyo, but the walk and talk is very much of someone who has graduated beyond being the up-and-coming prospect. The cheeky charm has always been there, but it's also underwritten by a steely seriousness.

International football has been another welcome step up the ladder for him and, while there are never any guarantees, particularly when it comes to tournaments and squad selections, he could at the very least allow himself to dream over the 2023/24 season, with more than an air of credibility about it.

The concept of Conway being in the squad once numbers were permitted to swell to 26 became steadily more realistic but ultimately Clarke has deemed Doak a more worthy wildcard, noting the Liverpool’s teenager’s pace as the defining asset he brings that this squad lacks.

That won’t help Conway get over the decision much, given it’s one of his prime attributes, which brings the conversation to what the summer now looks like for him and how this decision by Clarke may or may not shape his thinking.

From a pretty obvious standpoint, it’s hard to overlook the possibility that Doak - who’s made 14 professional appearances to Conway’s 90 - was preferred due to the identity of his club. There’s no doubt the forward has long been considered a potentially generational talent for his country but with such little football - 248 minutes, just 13 of which have been in the Premier League, against Conway’s 2,594 this term - it’s still a considerable jump into the unknown for Clarke.

Of course, McCrorie is part of the squad despite being a City player but that’s a result of the options available in that position and the loss of first-choice right-backs Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson.

As Premier League clubs have lurked around Ashton Gate, consensus opinion which isn’t wholly objective given a collective desire to see Conway remain in the red and white of City has been Conway is in the best place for his long-term development.

He is a regular starter under Liam Manning, given game time at a club which has a primary focus on individual player development, and where he is “a star”. Should he make a move higher up the food chain right now, how much could he potentially get lost in the system if he wasn’t to hit the ground running? And minutes-wise, how much exposure to first-team football is he likely to get initially?

But it’s impossible not to consider, based on Doak’s inclusion presumably at his expense, the fact that if Conway was classified as a Premier League player, or even one in the Scottish top-flight, he may well have been named on that 28-man list.

However, while that is a completely understandable thought process for the individual at the centre of it, given his self-belief and where he feels he’s at in terms of his career arc, here’s a slightly alternative theory: he hasn’t done quite enough this season to properly turn Clarke’s head and make him a definite inclusion, irrespective of where he plays his football.

Twelve goals is a solid return, and matches his figure from the previous season, after a hamstring issue denied him nine games at the start of the campaign and while the penalty count of five significantly boosts that number, you still have to score them. A player of his age scoring double figures in back-to-back seasons is a notable achievement.

But it’s not a wow return or a tally that doesn’t lead to an immediate “yeah, but…” when debating its merits. Had those 12 been 20, it’s more than likely the Scottish media pack would be demanding an immediate explanation from Clarke as to why he’s been omitted rather than it being a slight side discussion in the general discourse.

There are then two ways of looking at that; as mentioned, while Conway is front and centre of a Championship team, does he believe that Championship team and the way they are set up is conducive to him reaching the sort of totals that do turn properly heads beyond the West Country? His 10 Championship goals were, after all, broadly in line with his overall xG of 10.3 even if he did spurn some decent opportunities?

Or, and this feeds into the Robins' own sales pitch to get him to “sign da ting”, is a 12-goal season broadly where he’s at, at this stage of his career and remaining front and centre of a Championship team as he turns from 21 to 22, after a season in which he’s made nuanced improvements to his game beyond being fast, athletic and a good finisher, will put him in the best possible position to advance towards 20 goals?

We’re unable to properly gauge the inner-workings of his mind but you can imagine both theories have been considered, and may well be presently warring against each other as he sits at home or on holiday during the downtime of an off-season.

From a selfish perspective for Manning, while the contract complications don’t make it a straightforward pre-season from an external perspective as (and sorry about this Liam) we're going to keep having to ask the question, but internally he knows - as it stands - Conway will be among those reporting for the first day of testing and then the summer training programme. And throughout all of this what-now-is-approachging-saga-territory his professionalism or attitude to his work has never dipped beyond outstanding.

Manning wants and needs as many of his players for 2024/25 fit and available from the start of the summer right the way through to August, given how much focus has been placed on the training schedule.

However, whether or not Conway can be considered a definite player for 2024/25 is at the centre of considerable conjecture and if he were in Germany, it would at the very least delay the contract conversation further into late June and July based on what a tournament can do to a player’s profile.

Not being present at the European Championships, offering him a platform to advertise his talents to a wider audience and provide proof of his ability to deliver in the biggest of big game occasions, may well ever-so slightly limit or at least not further extend the pool of clubs currently considering him as a viable transfer option.

That, in some senses, marginally increases the probability of no appropriate bids being made over the summer and therefore leads towards the potential of him extending his deal. Then again, to offer the counter, if he has no intention of committing beyond 2025 - which, based on evidence so far has to be at least considered - then not having him shine on the grandest stage doesn’t work in City’s favour at all, because it prevents his value being maximised before it starts to diminish in the final 12 months of his contract.

It all adds up to a scenario where Conway’s Scotland omission is a blessing and a curse from a City perspective, and confusing ones at that. For the player himself, it could well simplify or further complicate his decision-making. As what tends to happen in these situations, only time will determine which way it falls.

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