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How Ukip's collapse will help the Tories capture 45 Labour seats

How UKIP's collapse will help the Tories capture 45 Labour seats
How UKIP's collapse will help the Tories capture 45 Labour seats

The Labour Party are at risk of losing 45 seats because of voters' desertion of Ukip in favour of the Conservative Party, new Telegraph analysis shows.

There are 45 Labour seats where their majority is less than two thirds of the Ukip vote share in 2015 - the majority of which are in their Northern England and Midlands heartlands.

According to the latest polling by YouGov two thirds of Ukip voters will vote for the Conservatives in the 2017 General Election

UKIP voters are deserting the party

This shift to Theresa May's Conservatives is a big worry for Jeremy Corbyn, with many of his MPs relying on a split vote between the Tories and Ukip.

If there is a large movement to the Tories - such as the two thirds that YouGov suggests - as many as 45 Labour constituencies could fall.

35 of these areas voted for Brexit in last year's EU referendum, while a further 10 voted to Remain. Regardless of how the overall area voted, however, the Tories will hope that they can pick up swathes of the country by uniting Brexit-backing people under one banner.

How UKIP's collapse could help the Tories beat Labour

Labour has long feared the loss of seats in their Northern heartlands to Ukip, which managed to claim 3.9m votes in the 2015 General Election - 12.6 per cent of the vote.

But polling shows that Theresa May's Brexit strategy has now gained the support of many of Ukip's old voters, meaning that the Tories have a real prospect of claiming large areas of North England, the Midlands and Wales.

All the Ukip voters seem to be flocking to the Tories and it is going to hit us like nothing before

Senior shadow cabinet source

Asenior shadow cabinet source told The Mirror: "The message on the doorstep so far has been terrible. All the Ukip voters seem to be flocking to the Tories and it is going to hit us like nothing before."

Seatssuch as Walsall North, Newcastle-Under-Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent South are the most likely to see this movement and swing to the Tories, having the largest differences between Ukip's 2015 vote and Labour's majority.

In Walsall North, Labour's majority stands at 1,937. The Conservative Party will only need a quarter of Ukip's 8,122 voters to back them in order to overturn Labour's majority.

The majority of the at-risk seats are based in the West Midlands, with the Tories seeking to make big gains in the region.

As well as the 10 West Midlands constituencies, nine are in the North West of England and seven in Yorkshire and the Humber.

Seats that UKIP's collapse could help the Tories take from Labour

 

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