Why the UK can’t win Eurovision (according to the data)

If Eurovision was a popularity contest, the UK should probably have taken the hint by now. Other than Germany, we have come last more times this century than any other country. And the dreaded “nul points” has become a painfully familiar feature in any conversation about the contest. But, are the politics of popularity all to blame – or are we simply not good enough?

The politics of Eurovision

Sir Terry Wogan, for 40 years the voice of Eurovision, was certainly in the former camp. Jaded by a dramatic decline in fortunes following Katrina & the Waves’s victory for the UK in 1997, the presenter said Eurovision was “no longer a music contest”. Instead, the contest had become marred by regionalism and block voting.

How the UK has ranked in Eurovision

Since 1997, this trend has accelerated. Countries have enthusiastically supported those with historic, cultural or geographic links to their own, as reflected in both the jury and televoting stages of the scoring process.

Scandinavia, for example, majorly benefits here. This century, nearly a quarter of Swedish votes have come from Finland, Denmark, Iceland or Norway. This regional loyalty is reciprocated and is likely to have helped to propel Scandinavian countries to victory in a third of contests since 2000.

Sweden, hosting this year, is all too aware of its winning streak. As the second semi-final opened on Thursday evening, hosts Malin Åkerman and Petra Mede sang a parody of last year’s winning song, Euphoria by Loreen, featuring the line “please don’t be angry with us, we just love Eurovision too much”.

Similarly, Greece can bank on support from its neighbours of Albania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia. Cyprus, too, almost never fails to give Greece the full “douze points”.

How countries’ votes are made up

In 2008, Wogan’s final year presenting, he made it explicitly clear he begrudged the power of the Eastern bloc voting. Russia won that year, as the UK was beaten by performances including pirates from Latvia and, to Wogan’s particular annoyance, “ridiculous” singing clowns from Bosnia. “I don’t want to be presiding over yet another debacle,” the normally jovial broadcaster said with bitterness.

For the UK, therefore, being isolated from Europe both geographically and, to an extent, politically, victory is made that much tougher. Ireland is the only country that loyally supports us, responsible for around 10 per cent of all points we’ve received.

The UK, though, is not alone in feeling aggrieved by these tactical disadvantages. France, Germany and Spain are among several countries who, on average, receive less than 3 per cent of the vote in any given year. France has not lifted the trophy since 1977.

Rule changes

A glance at the record book, however, tells something of a different story about the UK’s Eurovision journey. After Sweden and Ireland, the UK has emerged as the winner on the most occasions alongside France, Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Part of this is undoubtedly a consequence of the UK’s longevity in the contest. The UK also acts as one of the “Big Five” countries, granted automatic qualification owing to their financial support of the competition.

In the early years there was little room for politicking, with just 15 or so countries entering in the 1960s. Today, the boundaries of Eurovision stretch far and wide, from Azerbaijan to Australia; 37 countries can enter, leaving the UK’s often strait-laced entries getting lost in a contest of gimmicks and post-Soviet camaraderie.

Number of entrants to Eurovision

A change in the language rules also appears to have played a role in the UK’s loss of relevance in the contest.

Since its inception in 1956, countries were obliged to sing in their national language to reinforce the ethos of unity through diversity.

With English being the effective lingua franca of the western world, this might help explain why Ireland and England were able to secure one in four wins in the period to 1999 – when the rules were abolished.

Since then, the proportion of songs sung in English has soared, from 12 per cent in 1997 to 62 per cent in 2023. The UK’s advantage of reaching a wider audience through language has evaporated.

Number of songs by language

The entries

What data can’t quite capture is just how weak the UK’s entries have been in recent years. This week, The Telegraph’s Tristram Fane Saunders ranked every UK entry since it first participated in the competition in 1957. Eight of the bottom 10 belonged to entries since 2000, including the “out of tune” Jemini (2001) and the “car-crash” James Newman performance in 2021.

There are also hints in the data that the UK is simply failing to enter songs that live up to Eurovision expectations. The majority of winners since 1997 have been melancholy power ballads, in a minor key. Think Netherlands’s 2019 winner Arcade or Conchita Wurst’s iconic Rise Like a Phoenix in 2014.

In the same period, 18 of the UK’s entries have been in the major key, out of step with the rest of Europe’s vibe. Sam Ryder’s Spaceman bucked this trend. The song pushed the UK to its highest point in two decades; a sign that choosing the right song can counterbalance the other disadvantages our nation may face.

Our reviewers have ranked this year’s song, to be performed by Olly Alexander, as a middling entry by UK standards. The bookies are less generous, giving just a 1 per cent chance of winning. But at least his song, Dizzy, is sung in the minor key.