'It doesn't bear thinking about' - Nightmare transfer scenarios Everton must avoid

This summer transfer window represents a genuine opportunity for Everton.

Director of football Kevin Thelwell is still constrained by financial issues - both in terms of spending regulations and the problems caused by the wider uncertainty at the top of the club. A successful takeover will not happen quick enough to remove all of those concerns - though it could have an impact come the closing stages.

But if Thelwell is savvy and if events provide him with the opportunity to follow up some of the work of his recruitment team then there is a chance Everton could enter next season in better shape than the last campaign, one in which a threadbare squad worked wonders to deliver results that would have had them close to the top half of the table had it not been for the unprecedented sanctions they faced.

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There is jeopardy, however, and there is no escaping that the Blues will be at the mercy of events over the coming months. Here are some of the things the club needs to get right.

Transfer window pinch points

There are two ‘pinch points’ at which Everton could be at their most vulnerable this summer - the end of this month and the very end of the window. How this summer unfolds will largely be dependent on what happens around those key dates. The first centres on the club’s nemesis - the Profit and Sustainability Regulations that led to the two points deductions last season.

The rules have upended the plans of a host of clubs, with as many as six thought to be in a position where a sale would be helpful to their efforts to stay within the cumulative three-year, £105m loss limit by the end of the football financial year when this month concludes. The consequence is the unhappy creation of what could amount to a faux-deadline day on June 30. The Blues are one of the clubs that would see their efforts to comply - and thus avoid the potential for a third deduction - helped with a sale. This makes them more vulnerable than they would like to be to vultures circling for key stars and may have inspired the derisory opening offer Manchester United submitted for Jarrad Branthwaite on Friday.

The ideal scenario for Everton would be that they could secure outgoings on their terms, helping them to fall within the parameters and then put up a stern fight for the stars at the core of Sean Dyche’s plans. This is why Arsenal’s interest in Amadou Onana, seen as vastly talented but not as integral as some of his team-mates, could be useful for the Blues..

The second pinch point is at the end of the summer, a point when Everton may have to look at sales to help the club’s cashflow situation for the months that follow. That demand on resources was met by 777 Partners between September and May but their takeover deal collapsed, leaving a hole to plug. Should the Blues have to think along those lines it could create a second summer period in which they might have to compromise their desire for true market value with the need to be pragmatic. This is where the takeover could have an impact on the summer window - even if one is not completed, if Everton were confident they had secured access to new sources of cash then it could protect them as the deadline approaches.

What does not bear thinking about is a scenario where the Blues are at their weakest at just the wrong moments, potentially forcing them to have to decide whether to make sacrifices on-the-pitch in order to protect themselves from danger off the pitch.

End the uncertainty at the top of the club

The threat at the back end of the window could be alleviated should Everton be in a position where the ownership uncertainty was removed. Majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri appears to be on the brink of agreeing to enter into an exclusivity arrangement with US billionaire and Roma owner Dan Friedkin. That would not be the end of the process. Indeed, three exclusivity deals have already ended without resolution over the past two years. And the Premier League’s Owners and Directors Test will take time to complete even if it is assessing a credible owner with a record in the game.

But while any takeover might be months from sign off, there is a real chance that the club could start moving towards stability over the course of the summer. Nothing is more important to its progress than resolving the uncertainty at the top - Everton cannot start a third consecutive season without making progress on the question of who will be the club’s next owner.

Loan spots have to be used wisely

Against that backdrop, Thelwell and Dyche will have to prepare for the final campaign at Goodison Park. The challenge will be to navigate the problems they still face to deliver a side capable of being competitive next season. Useful steps have been taken, with the contract extensions of Idrissa Gueye and Seamus Coleman ensuring their vast experience will be on offer next season. A new deal has been offered to Ashley Young too and, while there has been no confirmation it has been signed as yet, the player has spoken of his desire to remain at the club.

The Blues will be looking to exploit the loan market this summer and the spaces available must be filled wisely. The club has had mixed success on this front since Thelwell joined in February 2022. In his first season, the deal that brought Conor Coady in was a coup, particularly after Yerry Mina and Ben Godfrey suffered serious injuries in the opening league game of the season. But Ruben Vinagre was barely used.

Last season, Everton’s recruitment team believed it had snared two of the best deals on the market by bringing in Jack Harrison and Arnaut Danjuma. But while Harrison became central to the team, Danjuma did not quite fit into Dyche’s plans.

The lesson Kevin Thelwell took from the Anthony Gordon sale

The transfer market is unpredictable and Everton are not in a position to dictate to other clubs given the constraints the club is operating in. But Thelwell will have to be firm on his plans and timing will be key.

When Anthony Gordon left late in the January 2023 window, Thelwell was of the belief there was money to spend but, despite the Blues heading into an horrendous relegation scrap, there was not enough time to spend it wisely. He has since said that his lesson from that experience was the importance of setting deadlines for deals to be reached so that the club then had the opportunity to deal with the consequences.

Everton face a summer in which sales are expected and are braced for further interest in Branthwaite, Onana and perhaps Dominic Calvert-Lewin. While the factors with the biggest influence on decisions will be different at different stages of the window, he has to try and find a way to ensure he can exercise some control over proceedings.

This is key with sales - the Blues will want to react to departures as early as possible in the hope of creating a settled side that can bond through Dyche’s notorious pre-season training. It is key with Calvert-Lewin, who is wanted by clubs including Newcastle United but is also in talks over a new contract. With this being the last opportunity to gain serious money for him if he does not sign a new deal, thus entering the final 12 months of his contract, a plan needs to be in place that gives Everton the chance to act in the interests of the club.

Timing is also important for incomings. The Blues are keen on both Harrison and Manchester City’s Kalvin Phillips but would be reliant on acquiring them on loan. Their parent clubs would prefer sales, however. Everton will not have the money to dictate to either Leeds United or Man City’s but cannot risk spending all summer banking on the players remaining available just in case a late bid takes them out of reach and leaves Dyche and Thelwell scrambling for other options.