Donald Tusk expected to become Poland’s prime minister this week

Donald Tusk is expected to become Poland’s prime minister this week, almost two months after a parliamentary election handed a majority to an alliance of opposition parties. His appointment will put an end to eight years of rule by the nationalist, populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The Tusk-led alliance won a clear majority of seats in the 15 October vote, but the country’s president, Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, gave incumbent prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, the first chance at forming a government, widely seen as a delaying tactic.

Morawiecki must present a new government to the Sejm, Poland’s lower house of parliament, on Monday, which will be followed by a vote of confidence. He is expected to fail. The Sejm then will nominate its own candidate, expected to be Tusk, who will present his government on Tuesday. After intense negotiations between prospective coalition partners, a cabinet has already been agreed.

Parliament will vote on Tusk’s government on Tuesday, and he could take office as soon as Wednesday, potentially enabling him to travel to a summit of EU leaders scheduled to take place on Thursday and Friday.

It will be a triumphant comeback for Tusk, 66, who was prime minister between 2007 and 2014, before he left domestic politics to become the president of the European Council. He will, however, face many challenges. His coalition will be broad and potentially unwieldy, and there is a tricky economic situation to manage and a budget to pass before the end of the year.

“There is still no draft budget; it has been neglected by Morawiecki and we will have to make up for it. It will include 30% pay rises for teachers,” Tusk said on Friday.

PiS won parliamentary elections in 2015 and has since embarked on a programme that combined some generous social spending with populist policies targeting migrants and LGBTQ+ people. The government clashed with Brussels over rule of law issues, leading to the freezing of billions of euros earmarked for Poland.

“We are working with the future minister of justice and the legal community on a package of changes to restore the rule of law in Poland. We will act firmly, but in compliance with the rule of law,” Tusk said.

PiS will remain the biggest single party in parliament, with 194 of 460 seats in the lower house, and it is likely to remain a vocal and difficult opposition. Duda, who has veto power over parliamentary decisions, is also likely to act as a brake on any ambitious legislative agenda with progressive intent, meaning the new government may need to wait until presidential elections expected in 2025 before it has serious legislative capabilities.

Duda made it clear he did not plan to switch to accommodating the new administration when he took the decision to nominate Morawiecki to form a government first, even though all other parties had made clear statements that they would not work with PiS and there was no path for a PiS-led majority. Tusk accused PiS on Friday of using the last few weeks in office to “wreak havoc, destroying the Polish state”.

PiS has also left a legal minefield for the new government in various ostensibly neutral state institutions, which have been subject to a creeping takeover by PiS loyalists over the past eight years, including the court system and state media.