Theresa May urged to publish leaked Brexit report as top Tories say it should be ignored

Theresa May is under increasing pressure to publish a leaked government report that says the UK will be worse off after Brexit, as top Tory Leavers tried to rubbish the document.

The prime minister has been urged to make the Whitehall paper public amid reports it says growth over the next 15 years could be up to 8% lower than if Britain remained in the EU.

Prominent Tories such as Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who back the plan to leave the European Union, questioned the contents of the report.

But other party members and the opposition want answers, and Commons Speaker John Bercow has ordered the government’s Brexit department to send a minister to the House to offer an explanation.

Mr Duncan Smith urged the public to ignore the report, telling BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that it should be put “on one side” because it was “not overseen by government and leaked deliberately”.

The Whitehall paper, leaked to BuzzFeed, says Britain will be in a worse position economically after Brexit no matter what deal is struck with Brussels.

BuzzFeed reported that the leaked document was titled EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing and was compiled by the Department for Exiting the EU.

But Mr Duncan Smith said the paper should be taken “with a pinch of salt”, claiming that almost every single forecast on Brexit has proven wrong.

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“I think the timing in this is highly suspicious in the sense that suddenly in the midst of all this conversation about the European Union we have a leaked document,” he said.

“But,I would observe that almost every single forecast coming from government, and most of the international organisations, has been completely wrong.

“I think we should take this with a pinch of salt.”

He added: “We should push it to one side and say, yet another report, not complete, not overseen by the government, ministers have clearly not evaluated this report yet.

“It’s deliberately leaked because it gives a bad view and therefore we should just put it on one side and say, look, leave it alone.

“People should just calm down. The reality is this is always going to be bumpy. My view is leaving is the right thing to do and we will benefit from it in due course.

Mrs May is preparing to fly out on a three-day trade mission to China, leaving behind her a Conservative Party in turmoil, amid deepening unrest among MPs over the direction of the talks with Brussels.

Even if the UK is able to negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement – as Theresa May hopes – its estimated growth would be down at least 5% over the next 15 years, according to the document.

That would rise to 8% if Britain left without a deal and was forced to fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

Alternatively, if the UK were to retain access to the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, the loss would be just 2%.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the pro-Brexit European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs, said the findings were “highly speculative”.

Asked by Sky News on Tuesday about the 8% claim, he said: “I think this is simply wrong. You need to look at the record of these forecasters.”

He said the report was based on a number of “assumptions” and claimed that leaving the EU will mean Britain will save £10 billion a year in payments to Brussels.

“We won’t lose out,” he said.

However Labour MP Chris Leslie, a member of the Open Britain group which campaigns against a “hard” Brexit, said ministers must now release the findings in full.

“No one voted to make themselves or their families worse off,” he said.

“The government must now publish their analysis in full, so that MPs and the public can see for themselves the impact that Brexit will have and judge for themselves whether it is the right thing for our country.”

On Monday, EU ministers agreed proposals which would require the UK to obey the EU rule-book in full for around two years after Brexit.

Downing Street acknowledged there were “differences” between London and Brussels over the nature of the “transition period” following the official date of Brexit in March 2019.

The remaining EU nations have agreed a transition period of 21 months, ending on December 31 2020, rather than the “implementation period” of around two years favoured by Mrs May.

Brussels also stipulated that the cut-off date for EU citizens to enjoy full rights in the UK should be the end of the transition in December 2020, rather than March 2019 as suggested in the agreement on phase one of the Brexit talks last month.

Britain will also be required to obey all existing EU rules and regulations – including free movement of people – during transition, as well as any new laws agreed by the 27 after the UK has been removed from decision-making bodies.