Leeds United's slim transfer prospect after goodbyes and inevitable sales driving the summer

Fifteen of the previous 20 years in the Championship have seen teams promoted automatically with a 90-point tally. And yet, here are Leeds United staring down the barrel of another campaign in the second tier.

This will feel raw for some time. Maybe in a week, or a fortnight or a month, minds will start to open to the bigger picture and what was achieved this season. Ultimately, regardless of the context of the points tally and the teams beaten, the Whites fell short of the required standard.

The beginning, middle and end were what did for Leeds in the end. The play-off lottery and what happened yesterday pale into insignificance when you look at the 46 games which preceded it. As Angus Kinnear once said, in other words, there’s no interest in entertaining that knockout format.

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Three wins from the opening eight matches, one win from five at the end of 2023 and two wins in the final eight-game run-in were streaks Leicester City and Ipswich Town were not letting United get away with. The bar was set high and, of course, it had to be Leeds to miss out of the four clubs good enough to win this league in most other years.

Armstrong exposes the issue Farke has been hung up on most

In his last 178 regular Championship appearances, Adam Armstrong has scored 65 goals and assisted another 24. At 27, he is coming into his prime and, at this level, he is too much for defences to handle.

He barely had a sniff in the second half, but before the break, he was a constant menace. The runs he made and the way he ruthlessly exposed any weak spots in that Leeds defence never let anyone relax inside Wembley.

Armstrong would prove to be the difference and was someone Daniel Farke namechecked after the match for boasting the kind of experience his side did not have. Fifty-four goals and 11 assists in 133 Championship appearances would suggest Joel Piroe knows his way around a second-tier penalty area too.

And yet, his threat level was non-existent on Sunday. Armstrong provided everything Piroe couldn’t, while Kyle Walker-Peters (27) pocketed the league’s best player and Ryan Fraser (30) got to grips with Wilfried Gnonto and Archie Gray on the other flank.

Age isn’t everything, though. Will Smallbone and Flynn Downes are hardly old stagers at 24 and 25 respectively, yet they bossed Glen Kamara and Ilia Gruev in the engine room.

The long, slow, sad goodbyes

Sunday marked the last time we will see some of these footballers in Leeds colours, whether that be the kit or their tracksuits. Joe Rodon signed off on his outstanding loan spell with another display which led from the rear.

The 26-year-old remains this correspondent’s player of the year at Elland Road. At Wembley, it was him sliding in to meet Illan Meslier’s six-yard box save for a clearance as the goal gaped. It was Rodon breaking out of defence in the second half to move the team upfield as the channels opened up for a charge.

The prospect of him returning to Elland Road is slim as a Championship outfit. As a British defender approaching his peak years after a season like this, he will be in demand and Daniel Levy can drive a high price in the open market.

Neither Sam Byram, Liam Cooper nor Jamie Shackleton got off the bench at Wembley. Their contracts expire next month and Byram seems like the only one used enough this season to confidently suggest new terms may emerge.

Jaidon Anthony did get on for a last run-out before his loan expires. Two starts for the entire campaign would, though, suggest he has little reason to believe a return would be worth his while, if Farke wanted him, next season.

Connor Roberts also had a final go before he returns to Burnley for judgement after their relegation from the top flight. In another universe, that would have become a highly successful loan at Leeds. However, the form of Gray at right-back and the subsequent injuries to Roberts really killed his chances of staying in the team.

The inevitable sales

Remaining in the Championship does, inevitably, mean sales must be made to keep the club on an even keel this summer. Going through this summer window without an injection of that top-flight nectar means belts must be tightened as parachute payments drop and the spectre of paying off old transfers edges closer into view.

The accounts give an overview of where the club is at with its debts, but the board would need to explain more for supporters to understand just when these backdated transfer fees need to be paid. In the meantime, the club must follow profit and sustainability rules and that’s going to mean some eye-catching sales.

Ethan Ampadu is a cornerstone of Farke’s project and surely didn’t commit to a long-term deal last summer expecting a guaranteed promotion after year one. Meslier was expected by some to move on after relegation and he may well want a fresh challenge this summer.

If Georginio Rutter wanted to leave, and that doesn’t seem likely based on his demeanour and joy for long spells of this season, he seems an unlikely sell for the Whites. They would surely make a significant loss on the £35m they spent last year and that would be hugely damaging for their financial fair play picture.

If Rutter wanted to leave or the club desperately needed his wages off the books, a loan seems the most likely route, but it would be no surprise if he stayed to fight again. Gray is, surely, a player none of the parties involved would want to see move as early as this summer.

At 18, he has had his first full season of senior football and found his way into Gareth Southgate’s comments. There must be three or four players Leeds would rather sell for eight-figure fees before they countenance a generational talent like Gray leaving.

Crysencio Summerville feels like the big ticket item all parties could feasibly be on board with selling. He has more than proved himself in the second tier and is too good to hang around for another stab at it when his stock is this high at 22-years-old.

There are two years left to run on the winger’s contract, making this the best time to sell him before his value starts to drop and the chance of a new deal looks more remote. Then there is the huge profit Leeds stand to make, which will provide major breathing space on FFP.

Kamara, Piroe, Pascal Struijk and Ilia Gruev all feel like safe bets for staying put under Farke for next season. Like Rutter, Daniel James seems like someone Leeds would only make a loss on if they tried to sell him this summer.

He has been an asset under Farke this term and should be a key player from August, especially when other wingers are unlikely to be here. Junior Firpo only has one year left on his contract, so he would either need to be sold this summer or left to go for free in 12 months.

The 27-year-old might, though, be someone driving a loss on the balance sheet given Leeds paid around £13m for him in 2021. Given how much Wilfried Gnonto agitated for a move last summer and how big a profit he could fetch, the Italian might be the other driving force in the transfer window for Leeds.

Another year in the Championship

The prospect of another nine-month slog through the second tier will feel more than onerous to so many of you right now. There should be confidence Leeds can get over the line at the second time of asking with a perennial winner at this level like Farke, but it’s the fact we have to wait another 12 months to find out.

You cannot draw too many conclusions on the strength of the division next season until the summer transfer window has closed, but it seems less intimidating than this term’s. None of the three relegated sides have anything like the top-flight legacy of Southampton or Leicester City.

Burnley seem set to lose their leader in the coming days, while Luton Town were always punching above their weight in the top flight and may not find the same promotion formula this time around. Sheffield United need a root-and-branch overhaul of their squad to find some semblance of identity or style under Chris Wilder.

We all saw what problems can manifest in relegated dressing rooms last summer and Leeds, with the stability of Farke and established owners, may be able to take advantage of that uncertainty elsewhere. West Bromwich Albion are not flush with cash, but have a head coach who has proven himself at this level.

Norwich City need a squad overhaul. Hull City have removed the head coach who took them to within three points of the play-offs and may need to tighten their own belts this summer. Middlesbrough and Coventry City could be two sides who do get their act together for more concerted pushes next term.

It seems unlikely after finishing 20th, but when Danny Rohl got Sheffield Wednesday moving this season, they were hitting top-six form. If he is backed with a decent squad this summer, that’s a machine that could put together a decent tilt with his recent commitment to the cause.

Farke needs more experience in that dressing room. Luke Ayling, Cooper and Stuart Dallas have already left or look set to. Patrick Bamford and Byram are injury-prone and may not be here in the latter’s case.

Roberts has returned to Burnley and Kamara does not jump out as a natural leader in the dressing room. Established pros in the full-back slots, a midfielder with an eye for goal, a natural playmaker, a winger and a striker look like a reasonable shopping list one day after the play-off final.