Mark Bennett: National political rhetoric likely to continue influencing down-ballot races

May 9—Television ads by candidates trying to win the Republican nomination for governor were dominated by national political issues and rhetoric.

Each trumpeted a close alignment with Donald Trump.

The same was true in the Republican race for Indiana's open 8th District congressional seat.

Indeed, national politics had a strong presence in Tuesday's Indiana primary election. Exasperated as many people are by that saturation, it's likely to continue through the campaigns for Congress, state legislature, statewide and — to a degree county — even county-level offices in this year's general election. The November ballots will include, of course, a high-profile presidential contest — a rematch of incumbent President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and former President Trump, a Republican.

Brace yourselves.

"I expect to see it and hear it for the next six months or so," said Matt Bergbower, professor of political science at Indiana State University.

"I wouldn't be surprised if those down-ballot races at the state level are influenced by the presidential campaign between Trump and Biden," he added.

The influence was clear in the primary's GOP gubernatorial race, and the party's 8th District contest. Mike Braun, the sitting U.S. senator, won the Republican nomination for governor by garnering 40% of the vote Tuesday in a six-candidate field. All were vying for an open seat, with term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb nearing the end of his second term. Braun's opponents highlighted their Trump-like stances and frequently mentioned their support of the former president.

Braun's ads displayed Trump's actual endorsement of him. He'll face former state superintendent of public instruction Jennifer McCormick, the lone Democratic candidate, this fall. Both have won statewide races before, but McCormick won the superintendent's job as a Republican and later switched parties after her independence rankled GOP leaders.

McCormick's education background may help elevate that topic as a campaign issue vs. Braun. But it's also likely that national issues such as immigration, abortion and Trump's favored topics and court cases will overshadow more state-oriented subjects.

Like the GOP governor's primary race, the 8th District contest involved multiple candidates competing for an open seat. Rep. Larry Bucshon, the Republican incumbent, opted not to seek an eighth term. Eight hopefuls accused each other of not being right-leaning enough, while touting their toughness on illegal immigration. The word "RINO" (Republican In Name Only) also got thrown around liberally, pardon the pun. Mark Messmer, a longtime state legislator from Jasper, got the nomination with 38.5% of the vote, easily beating former 8th District Rep. John Hostettler's 19.6%.

In November, Messmer faces Erik Hurt, who beat three other Democratic candidates with 45% of that party's vote.

Statewide, Trump received ⁦461,673 (78.3%) Republican presidential votes in Tuesday's primary, far ahead of the only other candidate on the ballot, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Still, a total of ⁦128,170 Hoosiers voted for Haley in the primary, even though she suspended her campaign two months ago. That's 21.7% of the Republican votes, more than 1 in 5. Biden won deep-red Indiana's smaller Democratic vote with 178,074.

Haley's share of Republican primary votes in Vigo County was slightly smaller. Of the 8,029 Vigo voters choosing a Republican ballot, 1,372 (17.5%) picked Haley, while 6,492 (82.6%) chose Trump. And, 165 Republican voters didn't pick either Haley or Trump.

With that many Republicans not choosing Trump, the former reality TV star's political coattails may not be as long as in the 2016 and 2020 elections.

"At least it would suggest there might be a kink in the armor," said Joe Etling, the Vigo County Democratic Party chairman.

While Republicans in down-ballot races this fall can't assume they'll ride into office on Trump's still-strong popularity in Indiana alone, it worked in the last two presidential elections. Trump carried the Hoosier state convincingly in 2016 over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton (56.5% to 37.5%) en route to winning the White House, and in 2020 (57% to 41%) over Biden, who won the presidency nationally by 7,059,526 votes.

Trump carried Vigo County with 56% of the vote in 2020, and several Republicans had similar percentages in winning county and state offices that year. Thus, a county clerk or recorder could get an assist from a popular presidential candidate.

And, 20,319 of 44,008 total Vigo County voters chose the straight-ticket option — all one party for every office at once (except those with multiple at-large seats, like county council). That was a significant increase from 2016's straight-ticket total of 16,844 in Vigo.

Its increased use is a sign of a polarized public.

"Given the state of division in American politics and Indiana's trend toward the Republican Party, it is likely that straight-ticket voting will continue," Michael Wolf, acting director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University-Fort Wayne, said Thursday.

Etling hopes the strength of Vigo County's Democratic ticket, and the fact straight-ticket voting doesn't apply in county council at-large races, will encourage voters to decline to vote straight-ticket.

Indiana is one of only seven states still allowing straight-ticket voting, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. "I wouldn't be opposed to it ending," Etling said.

Vigo had been America's ultimate swing county, until the Trump era. A majority of county voters had favored the winning presidential candidate in every election but two since 1892, prior to 2020. That's when Vigo heavily backed Trump, but Biden won nationally with 81 million votes. That same year, Republicans added to their growing numbers in winning county offices. All three county commissioners are Republicans now.

The turnaround began before Trump, said Randy Gentry, the Vigo County Republican Party chairman since 2012. Trump's wave in 2016 put "wind in our sails," he added.

"I think we were moving in the right direction a couple election cycles before that," Gentry said Wednesday.

Previously, many qualified conservatives were reluctant to run on the Republican county ticket, he said. In Tuesday's primary, Vigo Republicans had more contested races than Democrats did.

Another rarity occurred in this year's primary. For the first time in many years, perhaps ever, more Vigo voters chose Republican ballots — 58.3% to 41.7%.

"There's been a fundamental shift," Gentry said. "We've also converted diehard Democrats."

It's a trend. "I guess it's the 'it's cool to be a Republican' scenario," Gentry added.

Still, it's hard to understate the impact of Trump's appeal on Hoosiers' voting choices. It will be a determining factor, once again, this fall, said Wolf of the Downs Center.

"The advantage for down-ballot Republicans should be consequential," Wolf said. "Republicans have increased their margins statewide over the last decade."

Coattails aren't a new thing, though. Presidents Reagan and Obama boosted their parties' down-ballot candidates in Indiana in the 1980s and early 2000s. Nowadays, though, "We're a nation where voters are more aligned on ideology and party IDs," said Bergbower at ISU.

"A lot of us have picked a side, and there aren't a lot of independent voters out there," Bergbower added.

And national political rhetoric solidifies the divide.

Mark Bennett can be reached at 812-231-4377 or mark.bennett@tribstar.com.