Sunak survives Rwanda vote but new year showdown with backbenchers could still scupper bill

Right-wing Tories have threatened to vote down emergency Rwanda deportation legislation in the new year if it is not tightened.

Rishi Sunak avoided a damaging Tory rebellion on Tuesday night over his flagship Rwanda bill in a crunch vote in the Commons.

The totemic legislation, which aims to revive the stalled £290m deportation scheme after the Supreme Court ruled it unlawful, was backed by MPs at its second reading by 313 votes to 270, a majority of 43.

The result will come as a huge relief to the prime minister, who spent today holding crisis talks with various factions of the Tory right to persuade them to back the bill.

Follow live: Reaction and fallout to MPs' vote on Rwanda bill

The division list showed 37 Tories abstained but none voted against it, despite swathes of them trashing the legislation in recent days and former immigration minister Robert Jenrick even resigning because he did not think it was tough enough.

However, it means another battle is likely further down the line when the bill returns to the Commons next year given the hardliners who abstained are demanding amendments to tighten the plan by blocking interference from foreign courts - something moderates from the opposite wing have said they will not support.

The bill seeks to declare in UK law that Rwanda is a safe country to send asylum seekers to, and stop flights being grounded for legal reasons by allowing ministers to disapply sections of the UK's Human Rights Act (though not the European Convention on Human Rights, which some on the right are calling for).

Moments before MPs started voting, dozens of Tory hardliners from the so-called "five families" factions said they did not support the plan and the bulk of them would abstain tonight.

They said they will aim to table amendments in the new year which should "materially improve the bill and remove some of its weaknesses" - and warned they could vote down the legislation at its third reading if these changes aren't made.

Bill 'goes to the edge of what's acceptable'

That means Mr Sunak could face a fight on his hands in January when the bill comes back before parliament.

Downing Street said it was prepared to listen to proposed changes from MPs at a later stage but Home Secretary James Cleverly suggested in the Commons that the legislation was already close to the limits of what would be possible.

The One Nation caucus of around 100 moderate MPs have also said they won't support the bill if it becomes more hardline.

Damien Green, the chairman of the group, told Sky News the legislation currently "goes to the very edge of what's acceptable in terms of meeting our international obligations and the rule of law".

He said he wanted the legislation to proceed "unamended" and his faction would only accept "very minor" changes.

Rwanda has also told the UK government it will withdraw from the treaty if the UK were to breach its "international obligations".

However, Tory rebels remained firm in their position after the vote, with a source saying: "This bill has been allowed to live another day but without amendments it will be killed next month. It's now up to the government to decide what it wants to do."

PM: 'We can stop the boats'

Despite a fresh row likely in the new year, ministers were buoyed by the result of the vote tonight.

Given the government's working majority of 56, a revolt by 29 Tory MPs, or 57 abstentions, would have been required to defeat the bill at its first Commons hurdle - something that has not happened to a piece of legislation since 1986.

There appeared to be nerves in Downing Street this morning with climate change minister Graham Stuart flown back from last-ditch talks at the Cop28 summit in Dubai to vote for the legislation.

But the outcome proved more comfortable than initially feared for Mr Sunak.

The prime minister wrote on X that he will now work to make the bill law "so that we can get flights going to Rwanda and stop the boats".

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'Tory civil war continuing'

Labour said despite the victory the situation showed the "Conservatives' civil war is continuing".

Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: "Today's debate shows how weak Rishi Sunak is with this Tory psychodrama now dragging on into the New Year.

"The costs of the failing Rwanda scheme are apparently rising to £400m of taxpayers' money, while no one has yet been sent and this scheme is only likely to cover less than 1% of those arriving in the UK.

"They've broken the Tory Party, broken the asylum system and broken every promise they have made to the British people. Britain deserves better than this."

She called on the government to scrap the scheme and use the money to crack down on criminal gangs and reduce the asylum backlog - something Labour has vowed to do if it wins the next election.