Tories face total wipe-out in Greater Manchester, final polls predict

The Conservatives are on course to lose every single seat in Greater Manchester, according to the final polls published ahead of the general election. Three mega-polls published today (July 4) have predicted that Labour are set to win an historic landslide majority.

YouGov forecasts a total wipeout of the Tories across the North West, while another mega-poll by Focaldata predicts Labour will win 444 seats in Parliament. More in Common has suggested that the Conservatives could face their worst result ever, losing 239 seats.

All three mega-polls predict that Labour will win every seat in Greater Manchester except for Hazel Grove and Cheadle where the Lib Dems are expected to finish first place. Two of the pollsters have said that Labour will win in Tory strongholds Tatton and Macclesfield.

READ MORE: After 14 years of Tory rule, is Manchester any Greater?

More in Common puts Labour and the Tories neck-and-neck in former Conservative chancellor George Osborne's old seat of Tatton. This is one of 52 seats that are 'too close to call', according to the polling organisation, some of which cabinet ministers are contesting.

None of the mega-polls are predicting that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will lose his seat, but all three suggest that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will. Nigel Farage is set to become an MP for the first time, according to two pollsters, with his Reform UK party coming second place in many constituencies across the country including in Leigh and Atherton, both seats in Oldham and three in Manchester.

These mega-polls predict Labour will win comfortably in Rochdale where George Galloway is standing for re-election. But according to Electoral Calculus, which uses a different model, the result in this seat is expected to be close with the Workers Party slightly ahead.

Electoral Calculus predits Labour will win comfortably in Bury North, despite party sources predicting that it will be a close contest. The race in Bolton West, which, like Bury North, is a bellwhether seat usually won by largest party in the UK, is also said to be tight.

These MRP polls use data about voting intentions nationally to model how people will vote in each constituency based on the demographics, voting behaviour and other information about that area. These are the final polls to be published before the election.