Why relegation odds are in Nottingham Forest's favour despite one big unknown

Any hopes Nottingham Forest had of avoiding a nervy end to the season appear to all but have evaporated as they head into their final four games.

The Reds find themselves in a precarious position, sitting just one point above the dreaded dotted line. Their Premier League fate remains very much up in the air.

Sheffield United’s drop to the Championship could be confirmed this weekend, but the battle to avoid relegation may well go right to the wire for the other teams scrapping for survival. We take a look at the situation at the bottom end of the table.

READ MORE: When Forest could discover points deduction decision as appeal update emerges

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Forest’s odds

Everton’s victory over Nuno Espirito Santo’s side last weekend, followed by their Merseyside derby triumph in midweek, has put them on the verge of safety. And with the Blades as good as down, it looks like being a fight between the Reds, Burnley and Luton Town for the other two relegation spots.

It is incredibly tight down there, with just three points separating the 19th-placed Clarets and Forest. The Reds are on 26 points, Luton are on 25 and Burnley on 23.

As things stand, data analysts Opta say Forest have the best chance of survival out of that pack. They say Nuno’s men have a 35.78 percent chance of relegation, while the Hatters have a 71.70 percent chance of going down and Burnley’s is put at 92.46 percent.

Opta say that across their season simulations undertaken after the midweek fixtures, the Reds averaged 30 points in the final reckoning - taking four points from their final four matches. They face a tall order to claim any of those points against Manchester City on Sunday, however.

Blades for the drop

Sheffield United’s 4-2 loss at Manchester United on Wednesday means they could be relegated this weekend. Their drop to the second tier would be confirmed if they are beaten by Newcastle United on Saturday.

Even a draw or a victory at St James’ Park may represent only a stay of execution for Chris Wilder’s team. If Forest match or better the Blades’ result at the City Ground, it would send them down.

The unknown

The big unknown for the Reds is how many points they actually have. On Wednesday, the club were back in front of an independent commission for their appeal hearing over their four-point deduction for breaching financial rules.

An outcome of the hearing is expected within the next seven days. There is a very small risk of Forest’s sanction being increased, although that is believed to be unlikely to happen.

Even if their punishment is reduced by just one point, it could make a big difference to the Reds’ survival hopes. In this season of asterisks, Everton have already had a 10-point deduction reduced to six on appeal and have challenged their two-point deduction for a second breach.

At one stage, there was a possibility of the relegation picture still being up in the air after the final round of fixtures on May 19 - thanks to the Premier League’s backstop date of May 24 for resolving the cases of both Forest and the Toffees. However, the Premier League announced last week that a decision on Everton’s second appeal will be made public before the end of the season.

What has been said?

Everton manager Sean Dyche on feelings of safety after beating Liverpool: “No there certainly shouldn’t be. I’m not feeling that way.

“We’ve taken big steps but there is more to come. We can control the situation ourselves and that’s what we’ve always been aiming to do even with the points deduction and we are beginning to show that again.”

Head coach Nuno on Forest’s position in the table: “We don’t know exactly. That’s why we live in this atmosphere of uncertainty. Do we have 30 points? Do we have 26 points? Do we have more points?

“What we want is hopefully this week comes a decision. We appeal because we felt we were right. Let’s wait and play the four games with the reality.

“The reality now is we are one point in front of Luton. That says it is in our hands. We must try to ignore, regroup, play game by game and put points on the table.”

Luton midfielder Jordan Clark on retaining survival belief, despite being thumped 5-1 by Brentford last weekend: “We were written off from the start of the season, we’ve had that tag all season, so obviously they’ll probably write us off even more after this, and the Man City game last week. Conceding a lot of goals in two games is not good, but that’s what we do, Luton Town, we prove a lot of people wrong and we’ve still got the full belief in there, in each other and as a squad.

“That was a bit of a kick in the backside, but we’ve just got to be men now and step up. We know the games are getting shorter and shorter, next week is so important now and we need three points.”

Burnley boss Vincent Kompany ahead of Saturday’s trip to face Manchester United: “I know we still have a chance, that’s all that matters for me and whether it’s one or two teams or three teams, that’s not too much my concern at the minute. I fully understand that every weekend can bring such a shift and I would like it to keep tilting our way of course.”

Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder, speaking prior to the trip to Old Trafford, on the club’s likely relegation: "We all understand the situation. I'm not being defeatist, I'm just being a realist that the season really is gone. We have an obligation to our supporters and the league to be as competitive as we possibly can.”

How many points are needed?

The magic mark for survival has long been classed as 40 points. That hasn’t always been enough, but more often than not, teams with that tally have finished above the dotted line - and the total required to avoid going down has generally been lower than that.

Last season, Forest stayed up with 38 points, finishing in 16th place. Everton, just below them in the final standings, recorded 36 points.

Since the 1995/96 campaign, when the league was cut to 20 teams, banking 36 points was enough to survive on at least 16 occasions. West Ham United went down with 42 points in 2003 - the highest for a relegated side. Sunderland (1997) and Bolton Wanderers (1998) are the only other clubs to have finished in the bottom three with at least 40 points.

How the relegation battle finished in last 10 seasons

2022/23: 17th - Everton, 36 points; 18th - Leicester City, 34 points

2021/22: 17th - Leeds United, 38 points; 18th - Burnley, 35 points

2020/21: 17th - Burnley, 39 points; 18th - Fulham, 28 points

2019/20: 17th - Aston Villa, 35 points; 18th - Bournemouth, 34 points

2018/19: 17th - Brighton and Hove Albion, 36 points; 18th - Cardiff City, 34 points

2017/18: 17th - Southampton, 36 points; 18th - Swansea City, 33 points

2016/17: 17th - Watford, 40 points; 18th - Hull City, 34 points

2015/16: 17th - Sunderland, 39 points; 18th - Newcastle United, 37 points

2014/15: 17th - Aston Villa, 38 points; 18th - Hull City, 35 points

2013/14: 17th - West Bromwich Albion, 36 points; 18th - Norwich City, 33 points

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