Yahoo News Poll suggests RFK Jr campaign could help Biden beat Trump - latest
The independent presidential bid launched by anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr after dropping out of the Democratic primary may help President Joe Biden beat Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump in 2024, a poll has shown.
Democrats have previously shared concerns that the RFK campaign may harm Mr Biden.
In a national poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist, including only Mr Biden and Mr Trump, Mr Biden leads 49 to 46 per cent, a lead of three per cent.
When Mr Kennedy Jr is included, 44 per cent backed Mr Biden to Mr Trump’s 37 per cent, giving Mr Biden a lead of seven per cent.
The director of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement: “Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favour.”
“What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents,” the director added.
Key Points
Biden beats Trump in new poll – but loses to DeSantis and Haley
Fewer people think Biden won fairly in 2020 than Trump in 2016, poll shows
Poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania
Biden and Trump tied at 37 per cent, poll shows
18:27 , Gustaf Kilander
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 36.5 per cent in a hypothetical four-way race including two independents – Robert F Kennedy Jr and Cornel West.
In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll shared on Sunday, in a survey that included a thousand registered voters, 366 said they would back Mr Biden and another 366 said they would support Mr Trump.
Mr Kennedy, the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who launched a bid to win the Democratic nomination before restarting his campaign as an independent, got 13 per cent, while Mr West, a professor who started out as a Green Party candidate but is now also an independent, received four per cent.
Eight per cent said they were undecided and two per cent declined to give an answer.
The support for independents is unusually high and can affect both Mr Biden’s and Mr Trump’s chances of winning the White House again.
Mr Kennedy’s policy stances overlap with both Mr Biden and Mr Trump – such as his support for the middle class for Mr Biden and his isolationist foreign policy and anti-vaccine stance, which has resonated with Trump supporters even as the former president has voiced support for vaccines.
Poll suggests RFK Jr campaign could help Biden beat Trump
Thursday 19 October 2023 17:46 , Gustaf Kilander
The independent presidential bid launched by anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr after dropping out of the Democratic primary may help President Joe Biden beat Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump in 2024, a poll has shown.
Democrats have previously shared concerns that the RFK campaign may harm Mr Biden.
In a national poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist, including only Mr Biden and Mr Trump, Mr Biden leads 49 to 46 per cent, a lead of three per cent.
When Mr Kennedy Jr is included, 44 per cent backed Mr Biden to Mr Trump’s 37 per cent, giving Mr Biden a lead of seven per cent.
The director of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement: “Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favour.”
“What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents,” the director added.
Biden beats Trump in new poll – but loses to DeSantis and Haley
Friday 13 October 2023 19:51 , Josh Marcus
No matter what seems to happen – heading to face a fraud trial in New York, skipping the Republican primary debates, facing pushback for praising Hezbollah – Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP primary field only seems to grow more permanent.
A new Fox News poll, conducted earlier this month, shows that Mr Trump has four times the support of his nearest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, among Republican primary voters.
Mr Trump is lapping the competition, leading with 59 per cent support among polled voters, compared with Mr DeSantis’s 13 per cent support.
Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, is the only other candidate to crack double digits, with 10 per cent support, while support for former vice president Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and US senator Tim Scott is so minimal it’s mostly swallowed by the poll’s margin of error.
But it’s been this way for months, with Mr Trump leading and the occasional shifting of second and third place in the Republican race.
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Fewer people think Biden won fairly in 2020 than Trump in 2016, poll shows
Thursday 12 October 2023 19:00 , Kelly Rissman
53 per cent of Biden voters said they could not think of anything that would make them not support the president’s re-election, compared to 17 per cent who said there could be something that could change their vote.
The poll participants were also asked about the rivals’ previous elections.
In this same voting group, 61 per cent said they think the former president won “fair and square” in 2016, while only 52 per cent say the same about Mr Biden’s win in 2020.
Another poll this week showed Mr Biden and Mr Trump as head-to-head in Nevada. The CNN poll found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.
Despite facing federal and state legal challenges including four separate sets of criminal charges, Mr Trump has remained at the top of the GOP polls. He is vying for the Republican nomination in a crowded field, which also includes entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Gov Asa Hutchinson.
Earlier this week, former Texas Congressman Will Hurd dropped out of the race, and endorsed Nikki Haley.
New poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania
Thursday 12 October 2023 17:40 , Kelly Rissman
A new poll of Pennsylvania voters has put former president Donald Trump nine points ahead of President Joe Biden in the state.
The Emerson College 11 October poll revealed the former president had 45 per cent of the vote compared to Mr Biden’s 36 per cent. Eleven per cent of the participants said they would vote for “someone else” while eight percent remained undecided.
Mr Biden won the state in 2020 by a slim margin, which prompted Mr Trump to challenge his loss, which ultimately was rejected in the courts.
According to the poll, 50 per cent of Trump voters said they can’t think of anything the former president might do in the near future that would make them choose not to support him in 2024.
Meanwhile, 22 per cent said they can think of something he might say or do to sway their vote away from Mr Trump.
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New poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania
Nikki Haley’s campaign raises $11m as poll puts her as Trump’s closest rival
Tuesday 10 October 2023 18:54 , Mike Bedigan
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley raised over $11m from July to September, her campaign has said, further boosting her chances of being the person to take on current favourite Donald Trump.
The former South Carolina governor is vying for position with Ron DeSantis, having recently taken the lead in some polls with just over three months to go before the first GOP nominating contest in Iowa.
Despite her increased haul – up from $7.3m last quarter – Ms Haley still lags behind the Florida governor in terms of fundraising, and even further behind former president Trump.
Ms Haley’s campaign said she had attracted nearly 40,000 new donors in the third quarter alone and that she had $9.1m cash on hand. It follows strong performances in both GOP debates and a tireless campaign schedule.
“We have seen a big surge in support and have real momentum,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement.
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Biden and Trump essentially tied in Nevada, new poll shows
Tuesday 10 October 2023 18:23 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump and Joe Biden are close to being tied in a new CNN poll of Nevada, revealing that the state is set to be a battleground yet again in 2024.
Nevada is also the first western state to hold its GOP primary contest in February, possibly strengthening Mr Trump’s overwhelming lead.
The CNN poll, conducted by SRSS, found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.
Mr Biden won Nevada in 2020 by just two percentage points. Among those supporting the Democrat, more than half – 55 per cent – said their vote would be more against Mr Trump than in support of Mr Biden. Forty-four per cent said their vote was motivated more by their support for the president.
Among those backing Mr Trump, 63 per cent their vote was a show of support for the former president.
The Nevada caucuses on 8 February next year are set to be the third GOP primary contest. Mr Trump currently has the support of 65 per cent of likely GOP voters.
Ron DeSantis claims Trump has poll lead because voters are undecided
Monday 9 October 2023 20:17 , Gustaf Kilander
Ron DeSantis told Fox News Digital that Donald Trump is so far ahead in most GOP primary polls because voters are still “on the fence”.
“I don’t think any of it matters,” Mr DeSantis told the press at a recent event. “You’ve got to put yourself in a position to have the type of infrastructure needed to do well when the voting starts. But what’s going to happen is none of the polls are going to matter when people start voting. That’s what’s going to determine everything.”
“I think at the end of the day, a majority of people have not made a decision,” he told Fox News Digital. “So if you’re polling someone, and you push them, well if they’re kind of on the fence and they know Trump more than anyone, they’re more likely to do that.”
He added, “If you really pull down, half the electorate is up for grabs in these states, and we’re going to earn the votes in all of those states. We have the organization, we have the work ethic, and we have the message to be able to get it done”.
Almost half of all Americans expect another insurrection attempt after 2024 election
Monday 9 October 2023 18:26 , Gustaf Kilander
A new poll has revealed that voters are pessimistic about the state of American democracy and the peaceful transfer of power that faced the most serious attack in recent times on January 6, 2021.
Among the 2,700 registered voters polled by Survey USA, most say that democracy is threatened and most also expect further political violence in the future.
Almost half said they expect a similar incident to the 2021 insurrection to take place after the next election.
Forty-six per cent said violence is very or somewhat likely after the 2024 election – 53 per cent of Democrats, 45 per cent of independents, and 42 per cent of Republicans.
Black and Latino voters Pennsylvania overwhelmingly back Biden
Monday 9 October 2023 15:08 , Gustaf Kilander
A Pennsylvania poll has revealed that Black and Latino voters strongly support President Joe Biden in a 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump.
The Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc survey revealed that 80 per cent of Black voters would back Mr Biden, while 19 per cent said they would vote for Mr Trump.
Mr Biden won back Pennsylvania for the Democrats in 2020 by a margin of 1.2 per cent, with the president getting the support of 92 per cent of Black voters, according to a CNN exit poll.
Seventy-four per cent of Black voters said they would back Mr Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, while nine per cent said they preferred anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert Kennedy Jr. Mr Kennedy is expected to launch an independent campaign for president.
Eighty-one per cent of Latino Pennsylvanians said they would support Mr Biden, compared to 19 per cent who said they would vote for Mr Trump.
Nikki Haley emerges as Trump’s top GOP rival in new poll
Friday 6 October 2023 20:00 , Graig Graziosi
Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s bid for the Republican nomination just got a little more real – she’s beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the polls for the first time.
Mr DeSantis and Donald Trump have been the only two names to pull significant numbers in polling since the Republican presidential primary began. While Mr Trump commands a significant lead over Mr DeSantis, the Florida governor was still the clear favorite among candidates who sought to challenge the former president.
For a short time, the party seemed to be warming to anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, but polling has cooled, and likely due in no small part to the lashing he received at the hands of Ms Haley.
A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today survey released on Wednesday shows Ms Haley beating Mr DeSantis, 19 per cent to 10 per cent. The voters in that poll were all from New Hampshire, where the first primary of election season sets the stage for the rest of the year and can provide a significant national boost to whichever candidate comes out on top.
Mr DeSantis was the favoured candidate to challenge Mr Trump, but his popularity has waned as the primary season continues. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll from the end of August showed an 11 per cent drop in Mr DeSantis’ support — from 23 per cent to 12 per cent.
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Nikki Haley pulling ahead of DeSantis in two early states in battle for second place behind Trump
Thursday 5 October 2023 19:57 , Gustaf Kilander
Nikki Haley is beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in polls in two of the early primary states.
The former UN ambassador and South Carolina Governor is in second place behind former President Donald Trump in both her home state and New Hampshire.
In New Hampshire, a new poll of Republican primary voters by Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and USA Today found that Ms Haley received the support of 19 per cent of likely primary voters, her highest numbers in the state so far in the 2024 campaign. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in third place in the state at 10 per cent while all other candidates are in the single digits. Mr Trump is far ahead at 49 per cent.
In her home state, Ms Haley is pulling away from fellow South Carolinian Senator Tim Scott.
In Winthrop University’s October poll of the state, Ms Haley got 17 per cent, Mr DeSantis 12 per cent, and Mr Scott 6 per cent.
Nikki Haley comes in behind Trump in New Hampshire primary poll
Wednesday 4 October 2023 13:13 , Gustaf Kilander
Nikki Haley has risen to second place behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a new poll of Republican primary voters by Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and USA Today.
The former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador received 19 per cent of likely primary voters, her highest numbers in the state so far in the 2024 campaign. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in third place in the state at 10 per cent while all other candidates are in the single digits.
Most of Iowa and New Hampshire voters are considering candidates other than Trump
Saturday 30 September 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander
While Mr Trump has a massive lead with the national Republican electorate, voters in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire are looking beyond the former president.
More than three-quarters of likely Republican voters in those states are either not even considering Mr Trump, or are considering him but are also looking at other options, according to a poll by CBS News and YouGov.
But when voters were asked who they would back right now, Mr Trump topped the poll by 30 points in Iowa and by 37 points in New Hampshire.
Ron DeSantis was supported by 21 per cent in Iowa and 13 per cent in New Hampshire.
Trump has biggest primary poll lead since George W Bush in 2000 election
Saturday 30 September 2023 17:00 , Gustaf Kilander
Donald Trump has the biggest primary poll lead since George W Bush in the 2000 election.
According to a CNN polling average of five national surveys conducted between 7 and 24 September, Mr Trump has the backing of 58 per cent of Republican voters.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is supported by 15 per cent – 43 points behind Mr Trump.
At a similar time in the 2000 campaign, in September 1999, Mr Bush was a 62 per cent in the polls to Elizabeth Dole’s 10 per cent – a lead of 52 points.
